Chart: Benchmark Rice Prices Rose to 15-year High

Source : Bloomberg

Chart: China’s Industrial Profit Jumps in November

Source : Bloomberg

Chuckles of the Day

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11 Dental Care Tips to Boost Brain Health

SUSAN FITZGERALD wrote . . . . . . . . .

Growing evidence links poor oral health to a higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias. Keep your mouth healthy with these tips from June Sadowsky, DDS, professor at UTHealth School of Dentistry in Houston.

Brush properly. You should brush twice a day—in the morning and before going to bed at night. It’s best to use an electric toothbrush and allow it to clean each tooth. Dr. Sadowsky advises her patients to brush for as long as it takes to sing “Happy Birthday” twice. Avoid a forceful back-and-forth motion, which can be hard on tooth enamel.

Floss regularly. Floss at least once a day or every time you brush. Some people find it easier to use a soft gum pick instead of floss to clean between their teeth. Dr. Sadowsky does not recommend water picks. They remove food particles, she says, but not the plaque, which contains bacteria that cause gum disease and cavities.

Consider mouthwash. Mouthwash makes the mouth feel and smell fresh. Your dentist may suggest a specific type of mouthwash depending on your oral profile.

Ask about fluoride. Many public water systems are fluoridated to help prevent cavities. Your dentist may recommend brushing or rinsing with a product that contains fluoride as an extra measure.

Eat crunchy foods. The chewing motion involved in eating crisp produce such as raw carrots and apples is important for oral health, and research suggests it also may help maintain cognitive function.

Limit sweets. Sugar can promote cavities. Don’t suck on hard candy or mints. If you need cough drops, try sugar-free brands.

Drink plenty of water. Reduce your consumption of sugary and acidic drinks (such as orange juice and coffee), which can erode enamel, in favor of water.

Avoid tobacco. People who smoke have an increased risk of tooth decay, gum problems, and losing teeth, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If you smoke, ask your doctor or neurologist about programs that help people quit.

Schedule checkups. Visit the dentist at least twice a year to be examined for cavities and gum disease. Visit more often if you tend to build up plaque or have a history of gum problems.

Keep your dentist informed. Tell your dentist if you are on new medications or have a new medical diagnosis. Report problems such as dry mouth or swallowing difficulties.

Address problems. If a tooth breaks, get it fixed or replaced as quickly as possible. If you wear dentures, make sure they fit properly.

Source : Brain&Life

Chart: India’s FDI Inflows Over the Last 20+ Years

See large image . . . . . .

Source : Visual Capitalist

Chinese Carmaker BYD Overtakes Tesla as World’s Most Popular EV Maker

Danny Lee wrote . . . . . . . . .

China’s BYD Co. bills itself as the biggest car brand you’ve never heard of. It might need a different tagline soon.

The automaker is poised to surpass Tesla Inc. as the new worldwide leader in fully electric vehicle sales. When it does — likely in the current quarter — it will be both a symbolic turning point for the EV market and further confirmation of China’s growing clout in the global automotive industry.

In a sector still dominated by more familiar names like Toyota Motor Corp., Volkswagen AG and General Motors Co., Chinese manufacturers including BYD and SAIC Motor Corp. are making serious inroads. After leapfrogging the US, South Korea and Germany over the past few years, China now rivals Japan for the global lead in passenger car exports. Some 1.3 million of the 3.6 million vehicles shipped from the mainland as of October this year were electric.

“The competitive landscape of the auto industry has changed,” said Bridget McCarthy, head of China operations for Shenzhen-based hedge fund Snow Bull Capital, which has invested in both BYD and Tesla. “It’s no longer about the size and legacy of auto companies; it’s about the speed at which they can innovate and iterate. BYD began preparing long ago to be able to do this faster than anyone thought possible, and now the rest of the industry has to race to catch up.”

The passing of the EV sales crown also reflects the shift in competitive dynamics between Tesla’s Elon Musk, the world’s richest executive, and BYD’s billionaire founder Wang Chuanfu.

Whereas Musk has been warning that not enough consumers can afford his EVs with such high interest rates, Wang is firmly on the offensive. His company offers half a dozen higher-volume models that cost much less than what Tesla charges for its cheapest Model 3 sedan in China.

When a Tesla owners’ club shared a clip in May of Musk snickering at BYD’s cars during a 2011 appearance on Bloomberg Television, Musk wrote back that BYD’s vehicles are “highly competitive these days.”

The likely change in the global EV pecking order marks the realization of a goal that Wang, 57, set back when China was just starting to foster its now world-beating electric car industry. While BYD continues to pull away from Tesla and all other auto brands at home, replicating its runaway success abroad is proving tricky.

Europe looks poised to join the US in slapping Chinese car imports with higher tariffs to shield thousands of manufacturing jobs. Other countries’ EV markets are still in their infancy and aren’t nearly as lucrative. Management views the US as virtually off-limits due to the escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Wang is no Musk — he eschews social media and largely steers clear of the limelight. But in an uncharacteristically brash address delivered weeks before the European Union opened an investigation into how China has subsidized its EV industry, Wang declared the time had come for Chinese brands to “demolish the old legends” of the auto world.

While many car buyers outside of China are still only dimly aware of BYD, Warren Buffett surely isn’t. In 2008, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. invested about $230 million for an almost 10% stake in the Chinese automaker. When Berkshire started paring its holding last year — BYD shares were trading near their all-time high — the value of its stake had soared roughly 35-fold to around $8 billion.

The late Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger saw BYD primarily as a battery play. On Bloomberg TV in May 2009, he said the company was working on “one of the most important subjects affecting the technological future of man.” Munger’s family had invested in the company years ahead of Berkshire, and he told an interviewer weeks before his death in November that he had tried to dissuade Wang from getting into the car business.

BYD acquired a failing state-owned automaker in 2003 and introduced its first plug-in hybrid — called the F3DM — in 2008. A New York Times reviewer panned its exterior design, calling the compact “about as trendy as a Y2K-era Toyota Corolla.” The company sold all of 48 units in the first year.

Around that time, China started subsidizing plug-in car purchases. Support from the government extended from cities and provinces to the national level, spanning tax breaks for consumers, production incentives for manufacturers, help with research and development, and cheap land and loans.

As a rare automaker that also made its own batteries, BYD was uniquely positioned to benefit. Before entering the car business, it was the first Chinese lithium-ion supplier to Motorola and Nokia in the early 2000s. To scale up output before consumers were embracing EVs, the company targeted automotive segments that would need lots of cells. Its first electric bus launched soon after the F3DM.

“BYD was a miracle,” Munger told the podcast Acquired in an episode that aired in October. He called Wang a genius, saying he kept the company from going broke by working 70-hour weeks, and described him as a fanatical engineer. “The guy at BYD is better at actually making things than Elon is,” he said.

Roughly a decade and a half into making cars, BYD had mustered the smarts to bring plug-in car prices down to levels comparable with combustion engine vehicles. But its lineup still lacked good looks.

In 2016, the company hired Wolfgang Egger as design chief, a role he previously played for Audi and Alfa Romeo. It also lured away other international executives, including Ferrari’s head of exterior design and a top interior designer for Mercedes-Benz.

By the time China invited Tesla to build the country’s first car plant fully owned by a foreign entity, BYD was no longer resigned to making no-frills econoboxes. Now, its most expensive model — the Yangwang U8 sport utility vehicle — costs 1.09 million yuan ($152,600).

While the level of government subsidies has played a role in China’s tremendous EV growth, Paul Gong, UBS Group AG’s head of China autos research, believes the bigger factor is the level of competition that this support spawned.

“They have to work on the innovation, they have to try and find what consumers really want, and they have to optimize their costs to make sure their EVs are competitive in this highly competitive market,” Gong said. After tearing down a BYD Seal sedan and finding a 25% cost advantage over legacy competitors, his team concluded that Chinese manufacturers are likely to own a third of the global car market by the end of the decade.

For now, Tesla still has BYD beat on key metrics including revenue, income and market capitalization. Analysts at Bernstein expect some of those gaps to close considerably next year — they’re projecting Tesla will generate $114 billion in sales to BYD’s $112 billion.

Wang grew up the second youngest of eight children in the impoverished village of Wuwei in eastern China’s Anhui province. His parents died when he was a teenager, and his older siblings supported him through his high school and university education.

Through the early years of his working life, Wang was based in Beijing, working as a mid-level government researcher on rare-earth metals critical to batteries and consumer electronics. He founded BYD in 1995 in Shenzhen with the help of an almost $300,000 loan from a friend. He’s now worth $14.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Wang has racked up the air miles in 2023, crisscrossing the globe between auto shows, new market launches and meetings with heads of states. He’s touched down in countries including Japan, Germany, Vietnam, Brazil, Mexico and Chile — a travel schedule befitting the leader of a company that’s set up shop in some 60 countries and territories in just the last two years.

Analysts expect BYD to launch its third-generation EVs next year offering more technology, such as automated-driving capabilities. That’s one area where BYD falls short with its more affordable products versus upstarts like Nio Inc. and Xpeng Inc. Even as the number of auto rivals in China has shrunk from over 500 to around 100, new entrants continue to emerge, including well-funded tech giant Huawei Technologies Co.

When Bloomberg News asked Wang in March whether BYD had aspirations to be as big as Toyota, which in 2023 will be the world’s top-selling overall carmaker for a fourth straight year, he said the development of the EV industry will lead to an industry reshuffle.

“How a car company performs will depend on its tech and response,” he said. “BYD in China’s electrification is the winner for now, but how it will go tomorrow, we can’t say for sure. But we will lean into our advantages and keep making good products.”

But staying at the top will require a different mindset than getting there, said HSBC Qianhai Securities Ltd. head of China autos Yuqian Ding.

“When you become the No. 1, the mandate suddenly changes,” she said. “You’re going to redefine yourself — you’re going to have to find a way to beat yourself.”

Source : BNN Bloomberg

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上山容易下山难？从需求侧看中国经济

作者: 李迅雷 . . . . . . . . .

大家都熟知“上山容易下山难”这句古话。我喜欢爬山，但内心一直不太认可这句话，因为从力学的角度看，爬山显然比下山累。但我有一次下山由于大意，下行速度过快，不慎摔了一跤，且后果严重，这才感受到古人说得有一定道理。如果遇到陡峭的山坡、湿滑的道路，下山就更难了。

在经济术语中，经济周期的下行阶段有硬着陆和软着落之分，上行阶段倒没有对应的名词，看来经济的周期性波动更能体现上山容易下山难的特点。当然，究竟是上山容易还是下山容易，应该是没有定论的，因为上山与下山究竟是不是同一条路并没有告知，坡度多少也不知道，更何况由于每个登山者的体能特征、脚下功夫不一，因此，在没有假设条件的前提下就得出结论难以让人信服。其实分析经济也一样，不少人习惯于线性推导，但现实经济则不是线性的，甚至不是平面的，因为我们生活的空间都是立体的，同时还得加上时间的维度。

这次中央经济工作会议在谈及面临的困难时，首次提出消费和投资端的“有效需求不足”，我从10多年前就认定我国今后面临的最大问题就是“有效需求不足”，原因是投资拉动和出口导向主导的经济增长模式，会导致居民部门的收入占比下降，内部收入差距扩大，进而使得有支付能力的消费需求不足。

本文就大家普遍关注的房地产周期、经济转型等话题进行探讨，并侧重从有效需求等维度分析。

当城镇化遇到老龄化，房地产还需要调整多久

我们经常听到这样的观点：我国城镇化率才65%，而西方国家的城市化率水平普遍都在80%~90%，如果我们今后城镇化率每年上升一个百分点，那么到80%还有15年，房地产行业还能持续繁荣很长时间；或者我国户籍人口城镇化率只有46.7%，新市民数量超过3亿，都还没有买房，这意味着未来购房需求巨大。

与此类似的思维逻辑很常见，例如，中国人均乳制品消费量不足日本高峰期的一半，以此推断乳制品行业的发展空间巨大。但中国猪肉消费量几乎占到全球的一半，这是否意味着中国养猪产业从此走向衰落呢？非洲不少国家人均GDP不足2000美元，这是否意味着这些国家发展空间巨大呢？

因此，我们对城镇化的发展空间评估，需要多个维度，不能简单采取“国际比较”的方式。2021年，我国已经步入世界银行定义的“深度老龄化”阶段，深度老龄化意味着人口迁徙规模下降，城镇化进程放缓。

例如，2017~2021年五年间珠三角农民工净流出500多万，随着农民工平均年龄不断上升，告老还乡的农民工将持续增加，从而使得城镇化进程放缓。

今后中国城镇化将不是像过去那样以农民工进城为主要特征了，而是在人口自然增长率变负的背景下，一方面由于农村人口净减少的数量超过城镇，另一方面本乡本土的城镇化进程也在持续，故城镇化率还将上升，但增长幅度将大大放缓。从韩国看，步入老龄化社会后，过去20年其城市化率水平一直维持在80%~81%的水平。

最近大家探讨楼市什么时候见底，集中在商品房年销售面积、房地产开发投资额占GDP比重和新开工面积增速这三个指标上。乐观者认为，年销售面积到9亿平方米就是底，或者房地产开发投资占GDP比重到7%左右就是底，或者新开工面积增速上行就是底。如果此判断成立，那么楼市底部确实就在眼前了。

但这些都属于从“量”的维度去观察，是否还应该从“价”的维度去评估呢？如房价收入比、租售比等，目前应该还是偏高，即房子作为投资品，其估值水平与美国、日本、韩国等房价不便宜的国家相比，仍比较高。但即便其估值水平低于全球发达国家平均水平了，是否就是底呢？

例如，沪深300指数的平均市盈率已经跌至10倍多了，是标普500指数平均市盈率的五折，为何仍在下跌呢？因此，随便找几个指标数据来预测何时见底，无异于盲人摸象。

如果认为我们和日本在房地产开发投资额占GDP比重这一指标上可以作为见底的依据，那么，日本房价下行长达16年，是否也可以作为调整时间的依据呢？而且，日本1994年进入深度老龄化社会，我们在2021年，有类似之处。

从房地产需求层面看，我国居民人均GDP水平只有1994年日本人均水平的三分之一，且日本基尼系数一直维持在0.4以下的安全区间，更有利于消费。作为收入水平不高的发展中国家，我们面临未富先老的压力，故未来购房可能存在有效需求不足的问题。

我国这轮房地产牛市超过20年，超出多数人预期。当12年前深圳、上海的楼市估值水平超过东京、纽约时，诺奖得主席勒预测中国楼市泡沫会破灭，但在他预言之后中国楼市又涨了10年。1995年时任美联储主席格林斯潘提出美国股市“非理性繁荣”，但美股泡沫破灭也在5年之后才发生。所以，我们对市场一定要有敬畏之心。

我觉得，用周期理论来预测房地产周期或许比量价理论更靠谱些。例如，库兹涅茨通过对19世纪到第二次世界大战以前美国经济的研究，发现存在一个20年左右的长周期，由于该周期主要是以建筑业的兴旺和衰落这一周期性波动现象为标志加以划分的，所以也被称为“建筑周期”。

如果说我国房地产这轮上行周期从2000年开始算，上行周期已经持续20年以上，那么，对应的下行周期将持续多长时间呢？

人们通常希望幸福的时间越久越好，痛苦的时间越短越好。故人性决定了预测通常会发生偏差，如预测疫情结束的时间普遍早于实际结束时间，预测疫情管控结束后的经济增速普遍高于实际增速，预测股市见底的时间更比实际见底时间早得多。

因此，我认为在人口老龄化加速的背景下，需要从更长远的角度来看待这轮房地产调整的深度，未雨绸缪。

从需求侧看经济转型的长期性和曲折性

长期以来，大家似乎习惯于通过供给侧来推动经济结构调整。例如，过去10年来，政策一直为解决企业融资难、融资贵问题给予支持，今年四次出台支持民营经济的措施106条，但前11个月民间投资仍为负增长。

民间投资不振有多重原因，如产能过剩、杠杆率过高、融资成本高等。为此，2015年开始推进供给侧结构性改革，并取得了显著成效。但疫情之后，民间投资并没有如期反弹，与此对应的是PPI从2022年10月开始持续负增长。

从历史上看，PPI定基指数的每一次回落，都会出现民间投资增速的回落。2012年至今，PPI同比为负的月份明显超过PPI为正的月份，说明产能过剩现象没有得到解决，如果继续压缩产能，会使得民间投资继续低迷，就业压力进一步增加。

为此，是否应该从需求侧来解决产能过剩的问题？比较中美之间的CPI走势发现，过去10年我国CPI波动总体呈现收敛状，且趋势下倾。美国CPI则从2021年以后飙升，尽管目前已经明显回落，但还是比中国高出很多。

截至11月份，我国CPI和PPI仍然双双为负，其中房价下跌和商品房销售面积持续减少，导致预期进一步转弱。因此，通过各种手段增加中低收入群体收入，是提振消费者信心的关键举措。

中央经济工作会议第一次把“有效需求不足”放在所有可能面临困难的第一位。我们需要改变“需求没有问题”的长期偏见，国内大部分人都有通胀恐惧症，而且政策上一直有3%的控通胀目标，却没有防通缩目标。

我国制造业增加值占全球30%，人口占全球17.5%，居民消费只占全球约13%,这意味着产能过剩可能是今后的常态。而且，有效需求不足的问题实际上在2009年以后就出现了。

因此，扩内需的最有效手段是扩消费，而不是扩投资，因为后者可能又会形成新的产能。2009年至今扩内需的主要方式是拉动投资，从而使得供给和需求之间的缺口难以缩小，遇到出口增速下行时，问题更加突出。

有效需求不足的问题，首先体现在居民可支配收入占GDP的比重偏低上，我国占比为43%左右，而全球平均水平为60%左右；其次体现在作为消费主体的中低收入群体在全社会收入和财富中的占比偏低上，而且已经出现固化现象。

我国出生人口持续下降，也是中央经济工作会议两度提出的“预期转弱”的体现。如结婚数据在2014年开始逐年下降，2019年跌破1000万对大关，2021年跌破800万对大关，2022年同比下降约10.5%。这意味着今后出生人口数量下降将是长期趋势。我国总和生育率远低于2.1，有“中国生育率全球第二低”的说法。

要让预期提高，需要增加中低收入居民收入、提高社会保障水平，付出真金，仅靠“家电下乡”等促销手段是不够的。

因此，我国经济转型应该更多从需求侧入手，扩大消费、提升购房的有效需求。从过去两年的房地产政策看，大部分都是从供给侧入手，如保交楼、城中村改造、保障房建设、为房企提供流动性支持等，这些政策将有利于房地产开发投资增速的回升，但同时进一步扩大了住房供给。

如果对房地产的潜在需求（如改善性购房、3亿新市民购房等）不能转换为有效需求，那么，供大于求的格局难以改变，房地产市场低迷的态势还将长期存在。

从文化和制度维度看，可以乐观但需要改善结构

随着这轮房地产下行周期的延续，不少人看到担心我国会步入“中等收入陷阱”。我认为，“中等收入陷阱”只是一种某些国家真实发生案例的归类，但并不带有必然性。

步入“中等收入陷阱”的国家，有中东的伊朗、非洲的南非、南美的阿根廷、东南亚的马来西亚等，多属于自然资源丰厚的地域。而人口密度大、人均自然资源相对匮乏的东亚地区，不仅没有一地陷入“中等收入陷阱”，反而多已成为发达经济体。

这说明两点：一是天然资源丰厚的地区，不一定都能成为富裕地区，如果其发展模式一成不变，则有可能一蹶不振；二是自然资源匮乏的地区，可能更有危机感，尤其受儒家文化影响较大的区域，普遍勤勉好学，并把劳动力作为最大的资源禀赋，致力于制造业和贸易。

按国家统计局数据，至2023年9月，我国企业就业人员的周平均工作时间为48.4小时，在全球名列前茅。从女性劳动参与率看，我国也领先于大部分发达经济体和发展中国家。

尽管我国女性劳动参与率在过去30年中已经大幅下降，但仍大大超过印度。总体看，印度劳动年龄人口的劳动参与率仅为51%，落后中国25个百分点。尽管印度总人口超过中国，劳动年龄人口更是大大超过中国，但就业人数却只有4.3亿，中国为7.34亿。就识字率而言，中国为97%，印度只有74%。

因此，印度的崛起固然值得重视，但人均GDP是印度5.5倍的中国，仍具有明显的勤勉、专业等优势。一般而言，随着收入水平的提高，劳动时间会缩短，但中国企业从业人员的平均周工作时间却没有明显缩短。如根据Penn World Tables（2023）的数据，从1970~2019年，全球工作时长普遍减少，我们不降反升，迄今仍超过印度。

因此，尽管中国人口的刘易斯拐点早已出现，目前也面临老龄化加速和经济收缩的压力，但传统的文化基因和有为政府在科技创新领域的引领，应该能够让经济保持较快增长，中期目标是到2035年实现GDP水平翻番，则平均每年增速要维持在4.7%上下。

不过，作为一个拥有14亿人口的大国，要进入全球人均GDP排名前25%的经济体，也就是高收入经济体，难度很大。世界银行会不断抬高高收入经济体的标准，今年7月初，世界银行公布了全球“低收入、中低收入、中等偏高收入、高收入”国家的最新标准，其中高收入经济体的人均国民收入（约等于GDP）必须超过13845美元，估计到2035年将调高至2万美元以上。

目前全球符合高收入标准经济体的合计人口不到13亿，即占总人口比重只有15%左右，可见要成为高收入经济体难度非常大。未来高收入经济体人口不会超过20亿，即占总人口的25%，这是基本的数学常识。

因此，只要中国经济保持健康增长，不用在意所谓的高收入经济体标准能否达到，所谓的中等收入陷阱并不能解释为何全球中等收入经济体人口占比永远最高——划分标准而已。

但作为14亿人口的大国，收入分配问题是最难应对的。我曾做过统计，凡是人口规模超过1亿人的国家，大部分基尼系数都在0.4以上，说明人口规模越大，收入分配的“方差”也相应扩大。根据北师大中国收入分配研究院2021年发表的调查数据，我国月收入2000元以下的人口约为9.64亿。

中央经济工作会议提出当前面临的困难主要有“有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱”，我认为这些困难中的核心困难是有效需求不足。

有效需求不足既包括消费的有效需求不足，也包括投资的有效需求不足，而投资有效需求不足的原因又与产能过剩、投资回报率低有关，所以，关键还是要扩大消费需求，而不是扩大供给。而扩大消费需求的路径，正如中央经济工作会议所说，增加城乡居民收入。

如果通过扩大财政在民生领域的支出，推进财税改革等使得居民收入持续增加，且快于GDP增速，同时收入分配结构又能改善，那么，产能过剩问题、外部环境问题、预期偏弱问题等都将迎刃而解。

中央经济工作会议提出要统筹化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险，这实际就是下山路上的三大隐患，要确保这三大隐患在经济减速过程中不引发系统性风险，则一定要给它们注入资金，确保有效需求充足。就像登珠峰成功后的下撤途中，一定要让队员吸氧和补充能量，有了充足体能，才能确保安全返回。

Source : Sina