Data, Info and News of Life and Economy

Monthly Archives: March 2012

Major Central Bank Balance Sheet

Balance Sheets of US, ECB, Japan, and China Central Banks

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The aggregate global central bank balance sheet has doubled in four years, after doubling in the 5 years before that.

The central bank aggregate tally has moved from being the equivalent of 10 billion oz of gold, to just 8 billion.

S & P Composites’ Secular Cycles

Monthly since 1928

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Gold Stocks Outlook

Steve’s comments:

  • After the 60s-70s bull market reached the top of a major upward leg (the points labeled 1 and 2 on our BGMI chart), more than 5 years elapsed before there was a decisive break to a new all-time high.
  • We shouldn’t blindly assume that the current long-term bull market will continue to track the earlier long-term bull market. Real-time analysis is required at each step along the way, because the current market could end up doing better or worse than the earlier one in response to contemporary fundamental developments.
  • On a ‘big picture’ basis the current bull market in gold stocks is unfolding in similar fashion to the earlier one.
  • A normal sequence would go something like this:
    1. The stock market reverses downward on an intermediate-term basis, indicating the start of a multi-quarter decline in economic confidence.
    2. During the first few months of the downturn, cash — especially the US$ variety — is king.
    3. The Fed panics and either introduces new inflation-promoting schemes or clearly hints that such schemes are in the offing.
    4. Gold begins to trend upward in anticipation of more Fed profligacy and its deleterious effects on money and the economy.

The Canadian Oil Boom Infographic

Secular Shift of Investment from Stock to Bond

Bond Cucumulative Fund Flow

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Stock Cucumulative Fund Flow

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Chinese Economy Slows

Power Production (YOY % Change)

Chinese Economic Monitor Since 2006

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US Baby Boomers’ Dilemma

Personal Interest Income

Personal Dividend Income

US Economy in the Era of the Baby Boomers

China Global Trade Balance

Monthly since 2007

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Monthly Import of Crude Oil since 2006

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Annual Import and Export from 1981 to 2004

2005: Import – 660,122 Million US$, Export – 762,000 Million US$
2006: Import – 791,614 Million US$, Export – 969,080 Million US$

World’s Top 10 Economy in 1990 and 2011