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Tag Archives: CPI

Charts: U.S. CPI Rose Less Than Expected in October 2022

Headline CPI miss expected 7.9%.

Core CPI also lower than the expected 6.5%.

Services CPI is now at its highest since 1982, rising faster than Goods CPI.

U.S. real wage plunged for the 19th straight month.

Charts: 2022年9月份中國居民消费价格

Chart: Spread Between U.S. Fed Funds Rate and CPI Is Largest Ever

Source : Bloomberg

Chart: U.S. CPI YoY Surged to 39-year High in December 2021

Source : Bloomberg

Chart: U.S Consumer Price Index Since 1981

See large image . . . . . .

Read more at Mises Institute

Inflation Surges Near to a 40-Year High. Wages Aren’t Keeping Up . . . . .

Charts: The Annual Inflation Rate in Canada Went Up Faster than Market Expectation in September 2021

The highest inflation rate since February of 2003

Source : Trading Economics

What’s Wrong with America’s Consumer-price Index?

By almost any measure, American inflation is running hot. On October 13th the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the consumer-price index (cpi) rose in September by 5.4% year-on-year. In August, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the price index for core personal consumption expenditures, was up by 3.6% from a year before, a 30-year high. But some economists reckon these eye-popping numbers may be exaggerating the true costs being borne by consumers.

The discrepancy comes down to changes in spending habits. When the pandemic struck in early 2020, and lockdowns were ordered across America, consumers dramatically decreased their spending on some things, such as transport and entertainment, and increased it on others, such as food. But because the cpi was still being estimated based on a basket of goods and services set in December 2019, these shifts were not immediately reflected in inflation statistics. Using credit- and debit-card data from Opportunity Insights, a research group, Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School has constructed a new “covid cpi” that incorporates up-to-date weights from the spending data on each category. He estimates that between April 2020 and February 2021, monthly year-on-year inflation was underestimated by about 0.5 percentage points.

Now the reverse is happening. As America’s economy has reopened, prices in spending categories that were hardest hit by the virus such as transport and recreation have surged. But because spending on such things is still well below pre-pandemic levels, consumers are not experiencing the full effects. Mr Cavallo reckons that year-on-year inflation is being overestimated by about 0.5 percentage points. Among low-income households, who tend to spend less on transport, the gap between official and actual inflation is nearly 0.75 points.

As long as spending is distorted by covid-19, America’s statisticians may struggle to get their numbers right. This will take time. According to The Economist’s normalcy index, which tracks behaviour across eight indicators, activity remains more than 25% below pre-pandemic levels. On at least three measures—retail traffic, international and domestic flights and attendance at professional sports events—activity since late July and early August has been moving in the wrong direction.

Source : The Economist

Gap Between 10Y Yields and CPI Is the Highest Since 1980

Source : ZeroHedge

U.S. Consumer Prices Rose YoY in March, 2021

PPI Jumped Even More

Source : Bloomberg

China CPI Rose 0.4% YoY in March, 2021

Source : 国家统计局