Data, Info and News of Life and Economy

Monthly Archives: April 2014

U.S. Corporate Cash Holdings Relative to Debt At Lowest Levels in 15 Years

Data Since 1999

Change in Fixed Investment Spending Since 2009

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U.S. Consumers Have Leveraged Up Their Disposable Income to Recorg High

Disposable Personal Income and Total Consumer Credit Outstanding

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U.S. Treasury Bond and Interest Rate

Data Since 1998

When the federal funds rate began to rise in 2004, long Treasury rates fell over the next two years.

From May of 2004 until Feb. 2006 the federal funds rate increased by 350 basis point (bps) and the five-year note increased by 80 bps, yet the 30-year bond fell by 84 bps as inflation expectations fell.

If the Fed follows through with its forecast and short rates rise, the dampening effect on inflation expectations should again cause long rates to fall.

On the other hand, should economic activity continue to moderate then the downward pressure on inflation will continue. The prospect for lower Treasury yields appears favourable.

– Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.

Job Losses in Major Financial Crisis

Reinhart and Rogoff’s Big 5 Financial Crisis Plus U.S. Great Depression and Great Recession

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Job Losses % in U.S. Post WWII Recessions

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