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IMF Head Urges China to End Mass Lockdowns

David McHugh wrote . . . . . . . . .

It is time for China to move away from massive lockdowns and toward a more targeted approach to COVID-19, the head of the International Monetary Fund said days after widespread protests broke out, a change that would ease the impact to a world economy already struggling with high inflation, an energy crisis and disrupted food supply.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged a “recalibration” of China’s tough “zero-COVID” approach aimed at isolating every case “exactly because of the impact it has on both people and on the economy.”

Georgieva made the comments in a wide-ranging interview Tuesday with The Associated Press in which she also cautioned it is too early for the U.S. Federal Reserve to back off on its interest rate increases and held out hope that an energy crisis driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine will speed the push into renewables in Europe. She also called increasing hunger in developing countries “the world’s most significant solvable problem.”

In China, protests erupted over the weekend in several mainland cities and Hong Kong in the biggest show of public dissent in decades. Authorities have eased some controls but have showed no sign of backing off their larger strategy that has confined millions of people to their homes for months at a time.

“We see the importance of moving away from massive lockdowns, being very targeted in restrictions,” Georgieva said Tuesday in Berlin. “So that targeting allows to contain the spread of COVID without significant economic costs.”

Georgieva also urged China to look at vaccination policies and focus on vaccinating the “most vulnerable people.”

A low rate of vaccinations among the elderly is a major reason Beijing has resorted to lockdowns, while the emergence of more-contagious variants has put increasing stress on the effort to prevent any spread.

Lockdowns have slowed everything from travel to retail traffic to car sales in the world’s second-largest economy. Georgieva urged it “to adjust the overall approach to how China assesses supply chain functioning with an eye on the spillover impact it has on the rest of the world.”

The Washington-based IMF expects the Chinese economy to grow only 3.2% this year, on pace with the global average for the year.

The Communist Party has taken steps in the direction Georgieva recommends, switching to isolating buildings or neighborhoods with infections instead of whole cities and made other changes it says are aimed at reducing the human and economic cost. But a spike in infections since October has prompted local authorities who are facing pressure from above to impose quarantines and other restrictions that residents say are too extreme.

Asked about criticism of a crackdown on protests, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman defended Beijing’s anti-virus strategy and said the public’s legal rights were protected by law.

The government is trying to “provide maximum protection to people’s lives and health while minimizing the COVID impact on social and economic development,” Zhao Lijian said.

China, a founding IMF member, has a prestigious single seat on the the organization’s 24-member executive board, unlike most countries that must share a seat. Its 6% voting share is behind only the United States and Japan.

While China’s policy ripples out worldwide, Georgieva said the greatest risk facing the global economy is high inflation that requires central banks to raise interest rates, making credit more expensive for consumers and businesses. Coupled with that is the need for governments to take care of the most vulnerable people without undermining central bank efforts with excess spending.

“Policymakers are faced with a very difficult time in the year ahead,” she said. “They have to be disciplined in the fight against inflation. Why? Because inflation undermines the foundation for growth, and it hurts the poor people the most.”

Asked if the U.S. Federal Reserve should pause interest rate increases that are strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on poorer countries, Georgieva said that “the Fed has no option but to stay the course” until inflation credibly declines.

“They owe it to the U.S. economy, they owe it to the world economy, because what happens in the United States if inflation does not get under control can have also spillover impacts for the rest of the world,” the Bulgarian IMF chief said.

Inflation data is still too high in the U.S. and Europe and “the data at this point says: too early to step back,” Georgieva said.

She warned that international tensions between the China and the West and between Russia and the West threatened to restrict trade and its beneficial effect on economic growth and prosperity. She added that while there are concerns about supply chains disrupted by the pandemic, “we have to work harder on finding a way to counter these protectionist instincts” while being honest about supply concerns.

Georgieva said the world was already seeing signs of increased hunger before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain supplies to Africa and the Middle East. More investment in resilient agriculture and support for small farmers as well as efforts to reduce food waste would be part of the solution, she said.

“We have to admit in the wealthiest societies, in the wealthier families, that we waste food on a daily basis, even in quantities that are sufficient to feed the rest of the world,” she said. “Hunger is the world’s most significant solvable problem.”

Yet hunger has been increasing in recent years.

The world needs “a focus on food security in a comprehensive way that reduces waste, increases productivity and most importantly, focuses more attention on small-scale farming, where a great deal of livelihoods of people, especially in developing countries like that, would go a long way to bring this solvable problem finally to an end,” Georgieva said.

Russia’s war also created an energy crisis after Moscow cut off most natural gas supplies to Europe as Western allies supported war-torn Ukraine. The resulting high energy prices have created an opportunity to “accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy supplies” through incentives for green investments.


Source : AP

Chart: China Manufacturing Activities Continue to Contract in November 2022

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth straight month as Covid-19 outbreaks across the country and stringent measures to contain infections continued to dampen both supply and demand, a Caixin-sponsored survey showed Thursday.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the country’s manufacturing sector, rose to 49.4 in November from 49.2 the previous month. It was the fourth straight month of readings below 50, which signal contraction.


Source : Caixin

Chart: Institute of International Finance Forecast Global Recession in 2023


See large image . . . . . .

Source : Twitter

Charts: Inflation in Japan’s Capital Surges in November 2022

Source : Nikkei


Read more at Reuters

Consumer inflation in Japan’s capital rises at fastest pace in 40 years . . . . .

China Economy: Avoiding ‘Middle-income Trap’ Is Key in 2023

China needs to get its economy back on track as soon as possible to avoid falling into the “middle-income trap”, and the deepening of market-oriented reforms is key, according to a Chinese government adviser.

And the growth rate of the world’s second-largest economy next year could potentially surpass 5 per cent, said Wang Yiming, vice-chairman of China Centre for International Economic Exchanges.

But for this to happen, coronavirus disruptions must be mitigated or ended; government policies to boost the economy must be effective; and reform and opening up must be expedited to improve market confidence, he said on Wednesday at an event organised by the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research.

“China’s current economic growth rate is lower than its potential. This may lead to some medium- to long-term impacts, which are rather structural in nature,” Wang warned.

“For example, there are changes in the micro scene, such as enterprise decisions becoming more short-term in nature, risky investment appetite being reduced, and household consumption becoming more prudent.

“It takes some time for all of these to be rectified.”

Wang’s comments add to the recent concerns that other government advisers have shared publicly, with some flagging the urgent need for China’s economic policymakers to realise the country’s full growth potential.

While the current recovery momentum is still weak, it is “very important” to bring the economic growth back to a reasonable range, explained Wang, who has also served as vice-president of the Development Research Centre of the State Council.

China’s economy grew by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter of this year, up from the 0.4 per cent growth in the second quarter. And economic growth over the first three quarters of the year stood at 3 per cent, missing market expectations.

Economists with investment banks Goldman Sachs and UBS expect China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 4.5 per cent in 2023. Those at Nomura were slightly more conservative at 4.3 per cent, and Morgan Stanley’s team was more optimistic with their 5 per cent projection.

If China aims to fulfil its target of reaching the per capita income level of a medium-developed country by 2035 – with a per capita GDP of at least US$20,000 – the annual GDP growth rate should be no less than 4.73 per cent, Wang said while noting that this could be “very difficult” to achieve due to the nation’s ageing population.

As China’s per capita GDP exceeded US$10,000 two years ago, it is in the process of moving from middle- to high-income, which is a special phase of instability, and the country may become caught in the middle-income trap if economic growth stagnates, he added.

To avoid being in such a perilous position, in which growth slows and a nation becomes unable to generate further economic momentum or grow rich, the key is to increase productivity and unleash the vitality of the market, Wang said.

“These are unlikely to be achieved simply through countercyclical adjustment policies. It must be achieved through deepening reform and opening up,” he added.

In particular, China should enhance market-oriented reforms in the realms of labour, land, capital, technology and data.

For example, reforming the hukou household registration system – which dictates access to public services based on the birthplace of the holder – by providing basic public services to rural migrants settling in cities would unleash the consumption potential of 300 million people, he said.

Reviving consumption is “particularly important” for China’s economic recovery, especially as dwindling external demand has suppressed exports and manufacturing investment, Wang said.

In the first 10 months of 2022, China’s retail sales increased by 0.6 per cent, but they fell by 0.5 per cent last month.

China’s exports also declined by 0.3 per cent in October compared with a year earlier, down from 5.7 per cent growth in September.

“In the past three years, we have taken many measures to protect the 160 million market players, and the recovery of production is obviously better than the recovery of consumption,” Wang said.

“So, if consumption is not activated and exports are falling, it will be difficult to maintain the balance between the supply and demand ends of the economy.”


Source : SCMP

国务院关于数字经济发展情况的报告

国家发展和改革委员会主任 何立峰 . . . . . . . . .

全国人民代表大会常务委员会:

按照全国人大常委会监督工作计划安排,受国务院委托,现就数字经济发展情况报告如下,请审议。

党的二十大对加快建设数字中国作出重要部署。习近平总书记强调,要站在统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局的高度,统筹国内国际两个大局、发展安全两件大事,充分发挥海量数据和丰富应用场景优势,促进数字技术和实体经济深度融合,赋能传统产业转型升级,催生新产业新业态新模式,不断做强做优做大我国数字经济。李克强总理指出,要加快数字化发展,打造数字经济新优势,协同推进数字产业化和产业数字化转型,加快数字社会建设步伐,提高数字政府建设水平,营造良好数字生态,建设数字中国。栗战书委员长对相关工作作出重要批示,韩正副总理等国务院领导同志提出明确要求。发展改革委会同有关方面认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,牵头建立数字经济发展部际联席会议制度,扎实做好数字经济发展各项工作。

一、我国数字经济发展成效显著

党的十八大以来,我国深入实施网络强国战略、国家大数据战略,先后印发数字经济发展战略、“十四五”数字经济发展规划,有关部门认真落实各项部署,加快推进数字产业化和产业数字化,推动数字经济蓬勃发展。十年来,我国数字经济取得了举世瞩目的发展成就,总体规模连续多年位居世界第二,对经济社会发展的引领支撑作用日益凸显。

(一)数字基础设施实现跨越式发展。统筹谋划新型基础设施建设布局,加快推动高速泛在、天地一体、云网融合、智能敏捷、绿色低碳、安全可控的智能化综合性数字基础设施建设。一是信息通信网络建设规模全球领先。深入实施“宽带中国”战略,建成了全球最大的光纤和移动宽带网络,光缆线路长度从2012年的1479万公里增加到2021年的5481万公里,增长2.7倍。截至2022年7月,我国已许可的5G中低频段频谱资源共计770MHz,许可的中低频段频率资源总量位居世界前列,累计建成开通5G基站达196.8万个。网络基础设施全面向IPv6演进升级,IPv6活跃用户数达6.97亿。深入实施工业互联网创新发展战略,网络、平台、安全体系以及工业互联网标识解析体系基本建成。二是信息通信服务能力大幅提升。我国移动通信实现从“3G突破”到“4G同步”再到“5G引领”的跨越,6G领域的愿景需求研究、关键技术研发、国际交流合作加快。互联网普及率从2012年的42.1%提高到2021年的73%,上网人数达10.32亿人,移动电话用户总数达16.43亿户,其中5G移动电话用户达3.55亿户,约占全球的四分之三。面向中小企业连续4年推进宽带和专线降费,让利超过7000亿元。相比2012年,宽带网络平均下载速率提高近40倍,移动网络单位流量平均资费降幅超95%。三是算力基础设施达到世界领先水平。全国一体化大数据中心体系基本构建,“东数西算”工程加快实施。截至2022年6月,我国数据中心机架总规模超过590万标准机架,建成153家国家绿色数据中心,行业内先进绿色中心电能使用效率降至1.1左右,达到世界领先水平。建成一批国家新一代人工智能公共算力开放创新平台,以低成本算力服务支撑中小企业发展需求。

(二)数字产业创新能力加快提升。深入实施创新驱动发展战略,推进关键核心技术攻关,加快锻造长板、补齐短板,构建自主可控产业生态。一是关键核心技术取得突破。数字技术研发投入逐年上升,量子计算原型机、类脑计算芯片、碳基集成电路等基础前沿领域取得原创性突破,人工智能、区块链、物联网等新兴领域形成一批自主底层软硬件平台和开源社区,关键产品技术创新能力大幅提升,初步形成规模化应用效应。二是产业创新活力不断提升。产业创新能力取得突破性进展,2021年我国数字经济核心产业发明专利授权量达27.6万件,占同期全社会发明专利授权量的39.6%。关键数字技术中人工智能、物联网、量子信息领域发明专利授权量居世界首位。不断发挥金融支持数字经济发展作用,深化股票发行注册制改革,2021年至2022年6月,近150家数字经济相关企业在主板、科创板、创业板完成首发上市,募集资金近3000亿元。持续扩大数字经济产业中长期贷款投放,截至2022年6月末,计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业中长期贷款余额1.48万亿元。三是数字产业快速成长。数字经济核心产业规模加快增长,全国软件业务收入从2012年2.5万亿元增长到2021年9.6万亿元,年均增速达16.1%。截至2021年,我国工业互联网核心产业规模超过1万亿元,大数据产业规模达1.3万亿元,并成为全球增速最快的云计算市场之一,2012年以来年均增速超过30%。

(三)产业数字化转型提档加速。深入推进企业“上云用数赋智”,加快推动工业互联网、数字商务、智慧农业发展,促进传统产业全方位、全链条转型升级。一是制造业数字化转型持续深化。信息化和工业化融合不断走深向实,企业数字技术应用水平显著提升。截至2022年6月底,我国工业企业关键工序数控化率、数字化研发设计工具普及率分别达55.7%、75.1%,比2012年分别提升31.1个和26.3个百分点。截至2022年7月底,“5G+工业互联网”建设项目超过3100个,形成一系列新场景、新模式、新业态。全国具备行业、区域影响力的工业互联网平台超过150个,重点平台工业设备连接数超过7900万台套,服务工业企业超过160万家,助力制造业降本增效。智能制造工程深入实施,通过智能化改造,110家智能制造示范工厂的生产效率平均提升32%,资源综合利用率平均提升22%,产品研发周期平均缩短28%,运营成本平均下降19%,产品不良率平均下降24%。二是服务业数字化水平显著提高。全国网络零售市场规模连续9年居于世界首位,从2012年的1.31万亿元增长到2021年的13.1万亿元,年均增速达29.15%。近年来,我国电子商务交易额保持快速增长,由2012年的8万亿元增长至2021年的42.3万亿元,年均增长20.3%。电子商务、移动支付规模全球领先,网约车、网上外卖、数字文化、智慧旅游等市场规模不断扩大。三是农业数字化转型稳步推进。2021年,农作物耕种收综合机械化率超过72%,农机应用北斗终端超过60万台套,产品溯源、智能灌溉、智能温室、精准施肥等智慧农业新模式得到广泛推广,大幅提高了农业生产效率。

(四)公共服务数字化深入推进。加快推进数字政府建设,不断提升数字化公共服务水平。一是“互联网+政务服务”取得显著成效。全国一体化政务服务平台基本建成,“一网通办”“异地可办”“跨省通办”广泛实践。全国96.68%的办税缴费事项实现“非接触式”办理,全面数字化电子发票试点稳步推进,电子发票服务平台用户数量突破千万级。联合国电子政务调查报告显示,我国电子政务在线服务指数排名从2012年全球第78位提高到目前的第9位,企业、群众办事更加便捷高效。二是数字惠民水平不断提升。全国中小学(含教学点)互联网接入率达100%,住房公积金小程序服务1.64亿缴存人,社会保障卡持卡人数达13.63亿人,电子社保卡领用人数达6.19亿人,全国已审批设置1700多家互联网医院。在抗击新冠肺炎疫情期间,线上教学、互联网诊疗、线上健身等线上服务和无接触配送有力保障了居民需求。三是数字城乡建设纵深推进。新型智慧城市建设取得积极进展,城市信息模型平台和运行管理服务平台建设稳步推进,全国国土空间规划数字化监管平台基本建成,数字孪生流域、水网、水利工程加快建设,智慧交通、应急、广电等建设成效显著。数字乡村建设加快推进,促进乡村宜居宜业、农民富裕富足。全国现有行政村全面实现“村村通宽带”,农村通信难问题得到历史性解决。乡村治理数字化助力强村善治,党务、村务、财务“三务”在线公开率超过70%。乡村信息服务体系逐步健全,累计建设运营益农信息设施46.7万个,提供各类服务9.8亿人次。“互联网+”农产品出村进城带动农民增收,2021年全国农产品网络零售额达4221亿元。

(五)网络安全保障和数字经济治理水平持续提升。在全国人大的指导推动下,加快健全法律法规体系,强化网络安全机制、手段、能力建设,完善数字经济治理体系,提升网络风险防范能力,推动数字经济健康发展。一是法律和政策制度体系逐步健全。相继颁布实施《网络安全法》《电子商务法》《数据安全法》《个人信息保护法》,修改《反垄断法》,制定新就业形态劳动者权益保障政策。中央全面深化改革委员会第二十六次会议审议通过了《关于构建数据基础制度 更好发挥数据要素作用的意见》,初步构建了数据基础制度体系的“四梁八柱”。二是网络安全防护能力持续增强。建立网络安全监测预警和信息通报工作机制,持续加强网络安全态势感知、监测预警和应急处置能力。完善关键信息基础设施安全保护、数据安全保护和网络安全审查等制度,健全国家网络安全标准体系,完善数据安全和个人信息保护认证体系,确保国家网络安全、数据和个人隐私安全。基本建成国家、省、企业三级联动的工业互联网安全技术监测服务体系。三是数字经济治理能力持续提升。建立数字经济部际联席会议等跨部门协调机制,强化部门间协同监管。提升税收征管、银行保险业监管、通关监管、国资监管、数字经济监测和知识产权保护、反垄断、反不正当竞争、网络交易监管等领域的信息化水平,推动“智慧监管”。有序推进金融科技创新监管工具试点、资本市场金融科技创新试点、网络市场监管与服务示范区等工作,探索新型监管机制。

(六)数字经济国际合作行稳致远。习近平总书记在第二届世界互联网大会上提出“构建网络空间命运共同体”理念,深入阐释全球互联网发展治理的“四项原则”“五点主张”,得到国际社会积极响应和广泛认同。习近平总书记在二十国集团(G20)罗马峰会上宣布中方将申请加入《数字经济伙伴关系协定》(DEPA),彰显中国开放姿态。我与各方以此为遵循,推进高质量共建“一带一路”,加强在网络基础设施、数字产业、网络安全等方面的合作,建设21世纪数字丝绸之路,与世界各国人民共享数字经济发展红利。一是积极提出“中国倡议”。提出全球发展倡议,将数字经济作为倡议重点领域。发起《携手构建网络空间命运共同体行动倡议》《“一带一路”数字经济国际合作倡议》《金砖国家数字经济伙伴关系框架》《金砖国家制造业数字化转型合作倡议》等,共同构建和平、安全、开放、合作、有序的网络空间。截至目前,已与16个国家签署“数字丝绸之路”合作谅解备忘录,与24个国家建立“丝路电商”双边合作机制,中国—中东欧国家、中国—中亚五国电子商务合作对话机制建设取得积极进展,中国—东盟信息港、中阿网上丝绸之路建设成效日益显著。二是推动共享“中国红利”。主办“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛、世界互联网大会等国际会议,搭建全球数字经济交流合作平台。累计建设34条跨境陆缆和多条国际海缆,推动网络基础设施互联互通。中国电商平台助力全球中小企业开拓中国市场,2021年我国跨境电商进出口规模近2万亿元。在非洲20多个国家实施“万村通”项目,共享数字经济发展红利。加强人才交流,举办系列研修研讨,实施学历学位项目,积极分享产业创新升级、数字经济等领域实践经验。三是积极提供“中国方案”。深度参与数字经济国际治理,推进G20、亚太经合组织机制下数字经济合作,推动构建开放、公平、非歧视的数字营商环境,促进数字创新、数字技能与素养、数字化转型等务实合作,引导包容性规则制定。

成绩来之不易,经验弥足珍贵。十年来的成绩,根本在于以习近平同志为核心的党中央的坚强领导,有习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的科学指引,习近平总书记的系列重要指示批示,为推动数字经济发展指明了方向,提供了根本遵循;在于中国特色社会主义制度的优越性和先进性,为我国从工业经济向数字经济时代迈进提供了前提和基础;在于充分发挥集中力量办大事的制度优势,为提高数字技术基础研发能力,打好关键核心技术攻坚战提供了条件和可能;在于依托超大规模市场和完备产业体系优势,为数字技术快速大规模应用和迭代升级,新业态新模式蓬勃发展创造了机会和空间。十年来的探索,深化了我们对数字经济发展趋势和规律的认识,只有正确处理好国内和国际、发展和安全、政府和市场的关系,牢牢牵住数字关键核心技术自主创新这个“牛鼻子”,不断推进数字技术与实体经济深度融合,赋能传统产业转型升级,催生新产业新业态新模式,才能为数字经济发展注入源源不断的动力。十年来的实践,坚定了我们推动数字经济发展的信心,只要坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署,勇于进取、攻坚克难、奋发作为,完全有能力有条件战胜任何艰难险阻、应对各种风险挑战,不断做强做优做大我国数字经济。

二、当前面临的总体形势

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,我国数字经济发展的内外部环境正在发生深刻变化,既有错综复杂国际环境带来的新矛盾新挑战,也有我国社会主要矛盾变化带来的新特征新要求。

放眼全球,新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展,互联网、大数据、云计算、人工智能、区块链等数字技术创新活跃,数据作为关键生产要素的价值日益凸显,深入渗透到经济社会各领域全过程,数字化转型深入推进,传统产业加速向智能化、绿色化、融合化方向转型升级,新产业、新业态、新模式蓬勃发展,推动生产方式、生活方式发生深刻变化,数字经济成为重组全球要素资源、重塑全球经济结构、改变全球竞争格局的关键力量。世界主要国家都在加紧布局数字经济发展,制定战略规划、加大研发投入,力图打造未来竞争新优势。

立足国内,党的二十大擘画了以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴的使命任务,明确了未来五年是全面建设社会主义现代化国家开局起步的关键时期,作出了加快构建新发展格局,着力推动高质量发展的重要部署,对推进数字技术创新、深化数字化转型、建设数字中国提出了更高要求。我国网民数量、数据资源、数字化应用场景全球领先,人民日益增长的美好生活需要还将催生更大规模、更加多元的内需市场,将为数字经济发展创造无限可能。还要看到,我国数字经济发展的外部环境也在发生深刻变化,个别国家为维护自身科技垄断和霸权地位,遏制打压我国数字技术和数字产业创新发展,我们必须把数字技术的命脉牢牢掌握在自己手中,在科技自立自强上取得更大进展,才能不断提高我国发展的竞争力和持续性,在日趋激烈的国际竞争中把握主动、赢得未来。

与此同时,我国数字经济还存在大而不强、快而不优等问题,突出表现在四个方面:一是关键领域创新能力不足。在操作系统、工业软件、高端芯片、基础材料等领域,技术研发和工艺制造水平落后于国际先进水平。二是传统产业数字化发展相对较慢。农业、工业等传统产业数字化还需深化,部分企业数字化转型存在“不愿”“不敢”“不会”的困境,中小企业数字化转型相对滞后。三是数字鸿沟亟待弥合。不同行业、不同区域、不同群体的数字化基础不同,发展差异明显,甚至有进一步扩大的趋势。四是数字经济治理体系还需完善。适应数字经济发展的规则制度体系有待健全,数据要素基础制度体系尚在建设,既能激发活力又能保障安全的平台经济治理体系需要完善,与相关法律法规配套的各类实施细则亟待出台,数字经济国际治理参与度需进一步提升。跨部门协同、多方参与的治理机制还需完善,治理能力仍需持续提高。

“十四五”时期是我国全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标之后,乘势而上开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的第一个五年。面向未来,我们要保持战略定力,充分发挥我国社会主义制度优势、新型举国体制优势、超大规模市场优势,强化目标导向和问题导向,牢牢抓住数字技术发展主动权,把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革发展先机,大力发展数字经济。

三、下一步工作安排

以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入贯彻党的二十大精神,按照党中央、国务院决策部署和全国人大常委会审议意见要求,统筹国内和国际、发展和安全,坚持科技自立自强,以数据为关键要素,以推动数字技术与实体经济深度融合为主线,以协同推进数字产业化和产业数字化,赋能传统产业转型升级为重点,以加强数字基础设施建设为基础,以完善数字经济治理体系为保障,不断做强做优做大我国数字经济。到2025年,数字经济迈向全面扩展期,数字化创新引领发展能力大幅提升,智能化水平明显增强,数字技术与实体经济深度融合取得显著成效,具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群初步形成,数字经济治理体系更加完善,我国数字经济竞争力和影响力稳步提升。展望2035年,数字经济迈向繁荣成熟期,力争形成统一公平、竞争有序、成熟完备的数字经济现代市场体系,数字经济发展基础、产业体系发展水平位居世界前列。

(一)集中力量推进关键核心技术攻关,牢牢掌握数字经济发展自主权。以国家战略需求为导向,瞄准全球数字技术基础前沿领域和关键核心技术重大问题,积聚力量进行原创性引领性数字技术攻关。加大集成电路、新型显示、关键软件、人工智能、大数据、云计算等重点领域核心技术创新力度。着力提升基础软硬件、核心电子元器件、关键基础材料和智能制造装备的供给水平,加快锻造长板、补齐短板。打造原创技术策源地,强化原创技术供给,建设新型创新主体,培育创新生态体系。推动数字技术成果转化,以数字技术与各领域融合应用为导向,优化创新成果快速转化机制,打造安全可靠、系统完备的产业发展生态。

(二)适度超前部署数字基础设施建设,筑牢数字经济发展根基。完善信息通信网络建设,深入实施新型基础设施建设专项,持续推动5G网络规模化部署和融合应用,积极培育垂直行业应用场景,建设面向重点区域和重点行业的人工智能基础设施,优化IPv6性能和服务能力。加快建设空间信息基础设施,系统推进北斗产业化重大工程,推进构建民商统筹、集约高效的卫星遥感系统,加强民用遥感卫星应用,建设高低协同的卫星通信系统,推动卫星互联网加快发展。统筹布局绿色智能的数据与算力基础设施,推进“东数西算”工程,建设完善全国一体化大数据中心体系,加快国家绿色数据中心建设。全面发展融合基础设施,加强工业互联网新型基础设施建设,推动车联网部署应用,加快交通、能源、民生、文化、环境等领域基础设施数字化改造。

(三)大力推动数字产业创新发展,打造具有国际竞争力的产业体系。聚焦人工智能、先进计算等重点领域,培育一批掌握关键核心技术、具有国际竞争力的生态主导型企业。加强面向多元化应用场景的技术融合和产品创新,打好关键核心技术攻坚战,提升产业链关键环节竞争力,保障产业链供应链稳定。不断培育壮大云计算、大数据、区块链、工业软件等数字产业,探索建设中国特色的开源生态。推动数字产业集群化发展,高质量建设中国软件名城、名园,提升软件产业集聚度,打造世界级数字经济产业集群。充分激发市场活力,支持互联网企业不断加强技术创新,提升核心竞争力,鼓励平台企业依托市场、技术、数据等优势,赋能实体经济,支持平台企业不断提升国际化发展水平。

(四)加快深化产业数字化转型,释放数字对经济发展的放大、叠加、倍增作用。加快装备数字化发展,组织专项工程,打造标杆企业,发挥数字协同平台等公共服务平台以及龙头骨干企业的赋能作用,带动中小企业数字化改造,提升“上云用数赋智”水平。推动新一代信息技术与制造业融合发展,实施制造业数字化转型发展行动、工业互联网创新发展战略、智能制造工程,深化“5G+工业互联网”融合发展,推动建设5G全连接工厂,加快培育“专精特新”企业和制造业单项冠军企业,建立工业互联网安全分类分级管理制度,完善公共服务体系,丰富解决方案供给,加快提升工业大数据价值。组织实施数字化绿色化协同转型发展行动计划,推动数字产业绿色低碳发展,加快数字技术赋能行业绿色化转型。推进“三农”综合信息服务,创新发展智慧农业,提升农业数字化水平。大力发展数字商务,持续推进“数商兴农”,创新发展数字内容,培育新兴文化业态,加快商贸、物流、金融等服务业数字化,促进一二三产业融合发展。培育转型支撑服务生态,布局数字化转型促进中心,降低数字化转型门槛。

(五)持续提升数字公共服务水平,不断满足人民美好生活需要。推动政务信息化共建共用,持续提高“互联网+政务服务”效能,强化政务数据共享和业务协同,提升政务服务标准化、规范化、便利化水平。深化“互联网+社会服务”,推进教育教学、体育健身、医疗健康、文化服务等领域数字化,提高公共服务资源数字化供给和网络化服务水平。强化就业、社保、养老、托育、助残等重点民生领域社会服务供需对接,加快完善全国统一的社会保险公共服务平台,提升服务资源配置效率和共享水平。加大适老化智能终端供给,加快推动信息无障碍建设,运用数字技术为弱势群体生活、就业、学习等增加便利。统筹推进智慧城市和数字乡村融合发展,大力推进新型城市基础设施建设,加快智能设施和公共服务向乡村延伸覆盖,推进城乡要素双向自由流动,形成以城带乡、共建共享的数字城乡融合发展格局。

(六)不断完善数字经济治理体系,推动数字经济规范健康持续发展。依托数字经济部际联席会议等机制,强化部门协同,加强各项政策协调。加快出台数据要素基础制度及配套政策,推进公共数据、企业数据、个人数据分类分级确权授权使用,构建数据产权、流通交易、收益分配、安全治理制度规则,统筹推进全国数据要素市场体系。持续深化对数字经济发展规律的研究,统筹发展和安全,完善制度体系,规范投资审查流程和办法,细化反垄断执法标准,加强灵活就业和新业态形态劳动者权益保障,增强市场主体活力。支持和引导平台经济规范健康持续发展,完成平台经济专项整改,实施常态化监管,集中推出一批“绿灯”投资案例。完善数字经济统计监测,积极开展数字经济统计核算与分析,完善数字经济统计方法制度,及时反映数字经济发展态势。

(七)全面加强网络安全和数据安全保护,筑牢数字安全屏障。贯彻国家网络安全、数据安全等法律法规,落实网络安全等级保护、关键信息基础设施安全保护等制度要求,强化网络、数据等安全保障体系建设,健全网络应急事件预警通报和应急处置机制,强化网络安全技术措施同步规划、同步建设、同步使用要求,推动网络安全产业高质量发展,增强网络安全防护能力。建立健全数据安全治理体系,完善数据分类分级保护制度,规范数据全生命周期管理,加强数据跨境流动安全管理,推动数据安全产业发展,加强个人信息保护,提升数据安全保障水平,提升防诈反诈技防水平,完善长效治理机制。强化数字经济安全风险综合研判,防范各类风险叠加可能引发的经济风险、技术风险和社会稳定问题。

(八)积极参与数字经济国际合作,推动构建网络空间命运共同体。推进全球发展倡议,落实全球发展高层对话会数字经济领域成果,在联合国贸发会议、金砖国家、上合组织、东盟等多边和区域框架下开展数字经济交流合作。主动参与多边机制和国际组织数字经济议题谈判,积极推进加入《数字经济伙伴关系协定》(DEPA),在世界贸易组织、《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)等框架下推动电子商务规则构建,开展双多边数字经济治理合作,构建良好国际环境。加快贸易数字化发展,大力发展跨境电商,继续加强跨境电商综试区建设,打造跨境电商产业链和生态圈。务实推进数字经济交流合作,推动“数字丝绸之路”走深走实,拓展“丝路电商”全球布局。鼓励数字经济企业“走出去”,提升国际化运营能力,高质量开展智慧城市、电子商务、移动支付等领域合作。

委员长、各位副委员长、秘书长、各位委员,我们将在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,增强“四个意识”,坚定“四个自信”,做到“两个维护”,切实把思想认识行动统一到习近平总书记重要讲话和指示批示精神上来,坚定不移贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,按照本次会议审议提出的意见,积极采取有效举措,不断做强做优做大我国数字经济,为推动我国经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。


Source : 中国人大

Chart: U.S. Inflation vs. Wages – Inflation Is Winning

Source : Chartr

Younger Chinese Are Spurning Factory Jobs That Power the Economy

David Kirton wrote . . . . . . . . .

Growing up in a Chinese village, Julian Zhu only saw his father a few times a year when he returned for holidays from his exhausting job in a textile mill in southern Guangdong province.

For his father’s generation, factory work was a lifeline out of rural poverty. For Zhu, and millions of other younger Chinese, the low pay, long hours of drudgery and the risk of injuries are no longer sacrifices worth making.

“After a while that work makes your mind numb,” said the 32-year-old, who quit the production lines some years ago and now makes a living selling milk formula and doing scooter deliveries for a supermarket in Shenzhen, China’s southern tech hub. “I couldn’t stand the repetition.”

The rejection of grinding factory work by Zhu and other Chinese in their 20s and 30s is contributing to a deepening labour shortage that is frustrating manufacturers in China, which produces a third of the goods consumed globally.

Factory bosses say they would produce more, and faster, with younger blood replacing their ageing workforce. But offering the higher wages and better working conditions that younger Chinese want would risk eroding their competitive advantage.

And smaller manufacturers say large investments in automation technology are either unaffordable or imprudent when rising inflation and borrowing costs are curbing demand in China’s key export markets.

More than 80% of Chinese manufacturers faced labour shortages ranging from hundreds to thousands of workers this year, equivalent to 10% to 30% of their workforce, a survey by CIIC Consulting showed. China’s Ministry of Education forecasts a shortage of nearly 30 million manufacturing workers by 2025, larger than Australia’s population.

On paper, labour is in no short supply: roughly 18% of Chinese aged 16-24 are unemployed. This year alone, a cohort of 10.8 million graduates entered a job market that, besides manufacturing, is very subdued. China’s economy, pummelled by COVID-19 restrictions, a property market downturn and regulatory crackdowns on tech and other private industries, faces its slowest growth in decades.

Klaus Zenkel, who chairs the European Chamber of Commerce in South China, moved to the region about two decades ago, when university graduates were less than one-tenth this year’s numbers and the economy as a whole was about 15 times smaller in current U.S. dollar terms. He runs a factory in Shenzhen with around 50 workers who make magnetically shielded rooms used by hospitals for MRI screenings and other procedures.

Zenkel said China’s breakneck economic growth in recent years had lifted the aspirations of younger generations, who now see his line of work as increasingly unattractive.

“If you are young it’s much easier to do this job, climbing up the ladder, doing some machinery work, handle tools, and so on, but most of our installers are aged 50 to 60,” he said. “Sooner or later we need to get more young people, but it’s very difficult. Applicants will have a quick look and say ‘no, thank you, that’s not for me’.”

The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s macroeconomic management agency, and the education and human resources ministries did not reply to requests for comment.

MODERN TIMES

Manufacturers say they have three main options to tackle the labour-market mismatch: sacrifice profit margins to increase wages; invest more in automation; or hop on the decoupling wave set off by the heightened rivalry between China and the West and move to cheaper pastures such as Vietnam or India.

But all those choices are difficult to implement.

Liu, who runs a factory in the electric battery supply chain, has invested in more-advanced production equipment with better digital measurements. He said his older workers struggle to keep up with the faster gear, or read the data on the screens.

Liu, who like other factory chiefs declined to give his full name so he could speak freely about China’s economic slowdown, said he tried luring younger workers with 5% higher wages but was given a cold shoulder.

“It’s like with Charlie Chaplin,” said Liu, describing his workers’ performance, alluding to a scene in the 1936 movie “Modern Times”, about the anxieties of U.S. industrial workers during the Great Depression. The main character, Little Tramp, played by Chaplin, fails to keep up with tightening bolts on a conveyer belt.

Chinese policymakers have emphasised automation and industrial upgrading as a solution to an ageing workforce.

The country of 1.4 billion people, on the brink of a demographic downturn, accounted for half of the robot installations in 2021, up 44% year-on-year, the International Federation of Robotics said.

But automation has its limits.

Dotty, a general manager at a stainless-steel treatment factory in the city of Foshan, has automated product packaging and work surface cleaning, but says a similar fix for other functions would be too costly. Yet young workers are vital to keep production moving.

“Our products are really heavy and we need people to transfer them from one processing procedure to the next. It’s labour intensive in hot temperatures and we have difficulty hiring for these procedures,” she said.

Brett, a manager at a factory making video game controllers and keyboards in Dongguan, said orders have halved in recent months, and that many of his peers were moving to Vietnam and Thailand.

He is “just thinking about how to survive this moment,” he said, adding he expected to lay off 15% of his 200 workers even as he still wanted younger muscles on his assembly lines.

CONFLICTING ASPIRATIONS

The competitiveness of China’s export-oriented manufacturing sector has been built over several decades on state-subsidised investment in production capacity and low labour costs.

The preservation of that status quo is now clashing with the aspirations of a generation of better-educated Chinese for a more comfortable life than the sleep-work-sleep daily grind for tomorrow’s meal their parents endured.

Rather than settling for jobs below their education level, a record 4.6 million Chinese applied for postgraduate studies this year. There are 6,000 applications for each civil service job, state media reported this month.

Many young Chinese are also increasingly adopting a minimal lifestyle known as “lying flat”, doing just enough to get by and rejecting the rat race of China Inc.

Economists say market forces may compel both young Chinese and manufacturers to curb their aspirations.

“The unemployment situation for young people may have to be much worse before the mismatch could be corrected,” said Zhiwu Chen, professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.

By 2025, he said, there may not be much of a worker shortfall “as the demand will for sure go down.”

‘YOU FEEL FREE’

Zhu’s first job was to screw fake diamonds into wristwatches. After that he worked in another factory, moulding tin boxes for mooncakes, a traditional Chinese bakery product.

His colleagues shared gruesome stories about workplace injuries involving sharp metal sheets.

Realising he could avoid reliving his father’s life, he quit.

Now doing sales and deliveries, he earns at least 10,000 yuan ($1,421.04) a month, depending on how many hours he puts in. That’s almost double what he would earn in a factory, though some of the difference goes on accommodation, as many factories have their own dorms.

“It’s hard work. It’s dangerous on the busy roads, in the wind and rain, but for younger people, it’s much better than factories,” Zhu said. “You feel free.”

Xiaojing, 27, now earns 5,000 to 6,000 yuan a month as a masseuse in an upscale area of Shenzhen after a three-year stint at a printer factory where she made 4,000 yuan a month.

“All my friends who are my age left the factory,” she said, adding that it would be a tall order to get her to return.

“If they paid 8,000 before overtime, sure.”


Source : Reuters

Chart: Contribution to U.S. Inflation

Source : Wall Street Journal

Charts: Port of LA Has the Quietest October Since 2009

According to Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles.

Source : Bloomberg and Wolfstreet