Infographic: The Most Shorted Stocks in the U.S. (Fall 2023)

Source : Visual Capitalist

Chart: China Foreign Policy Is Determined By the Communist Party

See large image . . . . . .

Source : Nikkei

China’s Credit Growth Remains Slow on Weak Confidence

Source : Bloomberg

Humour

5 Daily Practices Could Up Your Chances of Living to 90 and Beyond

Renée Onque wrote . . . . . . . . .

Increasing your chances of living to 90 could boil down to your behaviors, not just genetics, research shows.

Currently, one in 5,000 people in the U.S. are centenarians, or people who are 100 or older, according to Dr. Thomas Perls, professor of medicine at Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine and director of the university’s New England Centenarian Study.

The study, which is the largest and most in-depth of its kind, has tracked over 2,000 people aged 100 and older, since 1995, to determine if certain factors contribute to living a longer life.

Perls also created a life expectancy calculator that formulates an estimated age you may live to, based on answers to questions about how often you work, the frequency of your doctor’s visits, your sleep habits and more.

“If you’re getting to 95, you’re usually doing that because of really good health behaviors,” says Perls, as well as benefiting from good luck and good genes.

5 daily practices to up your chances of living to 90

1. Manage your stress levels
2. Get good sleep
3. Eat healthy: Stick to a Mediterranean or Keto-type diet that foregrounds whole foods, healthy fats, and lots of fruits and vegetables. Also, avoid excessive red meat
4. Exercise often: Strength training twice a week and aerobic exercise three times a week, even if for just 10 minutes a day
5. Refrain from smoking

Through another study that tracked the behaviors of the adherents of a religious group, Seventh Day Adventists, researchers were able to narrow the most important daily practices for longevity down to these five.

On average, followers of the religion tended to live to between age 86 and 90, regardless of race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status. The only common theme was that they all strictly followed the five behaviors listed above.

‘The older you get, the healthier you’ve been’

While researching, Perls noticed that several people had reservations about living a long life, which prevented them from seeing the value of maintaining healthy behaviors. “Some people think that the older you get, the sicker you get and that they wouldn’t want to live to that age. And that’s actually very flawed reasoning,” he says.

Actually, he says, “the older you get, the healthier you’ve been.”

Perls has had the opportunity to meet many centenarians, and some of them even live very active lives, he told BU Today, a publication at Boston University.

“One lady I remember, Celia, she was 102 and she was never around for me to go visit her at this independent living community,” Perls said during BU Today’s podcast. “I thought maybe she was out seeing her doctors or something. But no, she was out playing piano at all kinds of gigs, and really complex Chopin.”

‘Women win the longevity marathon’

Genetics plays a notable role in all of this, as well. Only “about 75% of living to around 90 is going to be your health-related behaviors,” says Perls.

But by age 110, it flips, and longevity becomes more dependent on genetics. When researchers analyzed 200 people aged 110 and older, they found that around 75% of the ability to live that long was based on having the right combination of rare genetic variants.

There’s a strong gender component too, as about nine out of 10 centenarians are women.

“Women very much win the longevity marathon compared to men. It’s not clear at all why women do so much better in terms of getting to these most extreme ages,” says Perls.

Source : CNBC

Infographic: Which Sectors are Least Vulnerable to Recession Risk?

See large image . . . . . .

Source : Visual Capitalist

China’s Economy Seen Weakening on Drags From Deflation, Property

China’s economy likely lost some momentum in November, raising expectations for Beijing to ramp up stimulus in the new year.

Data due Friday is expected to show industrial output weakening from October and a contraction in property investment worsening as efforts to support growth have yet to take hold. Deflationary pressures remain a concern, casting a shadow over any uptick in year-on-year retail sales growth.

“It is still too early to call the bottom,” Nomura Holdings Inc. economists including Lu Ting wrote in a Monday note.

Figures for last month will be distorted by their comparison to 2022, when economic activity was stifled by the pandemic. That may lead economists to focus on compounded annual growth rates, or month-on-month comparisons.

Weakness in the numbers is likely to add to calls for more stimulus, especially if President Xi Jinping targets an ambitious growth goal of about 5% for 2024. Recent meetings of top leaders suggested aid is likely to come in the form of fiscal stimulus, with monetary easing playing a supportive role.

The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release November economic data Friday at 10 a.m. local time. Here’s what to watch:

Industrial Production

Industrial production is estimated to have risen 5.7% in November from a year prior, according to the median forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

While that would be stronger than October’s 4.6% year-on-year increase, growth may be weaker when compared to 2019 levels, before the pandemic. The compounded annual growth rate compared to that time is estimated to reach 4.6% in November, easing slightly from 5% in October, the Nomura economists wrote in a November research note.

The official purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector pointed to more anemic factory activity in November, after the survey contracted for a second straight month. A sub-gauge measuring production dipped to the lowest in four months as new orders continued to shrink.

High-frequency data has also suggested sluggish activity. The operating rates of cement mills and asphalt facilities — critical sectors for construction — were at 43% and 37%, respectively, in November. Both were below the levels recorded a year earlier, according to a recent report from UBS Group AG economists including Wang Tao.

Steel output seems to have held up. Mills kept churning out the key building material as they anticipate government measures to help the property sector will support demand into 2024.

Consumption

Retail sales likely jumped 12.5% last month from a year earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey. That would mark a significant acceleration from October’s gain of 7.6%, though both months compare to poor figures in 2022.

More detailed data on consumer buying has been mixed. Passenger vehicle sales jumped 26% last month from a lockdown-induced purchase lull a year earlier. That suggests fierce pricing competition between carmakers and local government policies to encourage buying are having an impact.

Spending on other goods may be less robust. Total online sales recorded by nationwide e-commerce platforms during November’s annual Singles’ Day shopping festival rose just 2.1% from a year ago, Citigroup Inc. economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote last month. They cited calculations by a local data analysis firm.

Subdued household demand contributed to a deeper-than-expected drop in China’s consumer price index: The 0.5% decline in November was the steepest since 2020. A fall in producer costs also got worse.

Fixed-Asset Investment

Fixed-asset investment is projected to have climbed 3% through the first 11 months of the year compared to the same time period in 2022. That would be a tad faster than the 2.9% increase in January-October.

Growth in manufacturing investment may have been resilient on continued policy support and improving industrial profits, according to UBS.

In late October, the government unveiled a plan to sell an additional 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) worth of sovereign bonds to invest in infrastructure, a proposal intended to shore up economic activity. More than two thirds of those notes had been sold by late last month, according to estimates at the time from Founder Securities Co. analysts including Zhang Wei. Those funds are expected to fill an investment gap left by a tapering off of the issuance of special local government bonds, since provinces have been using up this year’s quota.

The property slump is still likely to weigh on the investment figures, offsetting most of the strength in manufacturing and infrastructure. Investment in real estate development is forecast to have tumbled 9.5% in the period ended November as a contraction in new home sales deepened.

Policy Direction

The People’s Bank of China is widely expected to hold the rate on its one-year policy loans — called the medium-term lending facility — at 2.5% on Friday before the data release.

The central bank cut policy rates twice this year to support the economy. Its room for making additional trims has been constrained by weakness in the yuan and narrowing profit margins for banks.

A combination of deflationary pressures and the PBOC’s cautious way of easing means real interest rates have climbed higher, discouraging businesses and households from borrowing.

Top leaders vowed at an annual economic confab this week to keep credit growth in step with both the GDP and inflation targets. That’s reinforced expectations for measured interest rate cuts and reductions in the reserve requirement ratio — the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve — in the coming year.

Still, aggressive loosening is unlikely. A meeting of the party’s top 24 leaders last week dropped the word “forceful” from its description of monetary policy.

Economists broadly see fiscal support taking a bigger role next year, given promises by Beijing to “appropriately strengthen” such policies. Many analysts have taken that as a sign the official budget deficit could exceed 3% of GDP again in 2024, after this year’s ratio was raised to 3.8% in October.

Source : BNN Bloomberg

Why Americans’ ‘YOLO’ Spending Spree Baffles Economists

Megan Carnegie and Leah Carroll wrote . . . . . . . . .

Despite past trends, US consumers are spending at record levels. Economists are mystified – and struggling to forecast an end point.

Throughout a period of sky-high interest rates, depleted savings and grinding inflation, Americans have spent with abandon.

On Black Friday, sales at brick-and-mortar stores were up 1.1% from last year; online alone, US shoppers spent a record $9.8bn (£7.72bn) online alone. Consumers spent another $12.4bn (£9.77bn) on Cyber Monday – an eye-popping 9.6% increase over last year. This holiday splurge follows a pattern of US consumer spending, which has buoyed the American economy in the past year, making up nearly 70% of the real GDP’s 4.9% Q3 growth.

While some of this spending reflects the rising cost of necessities, Americans are also still buying big-ticket items and laying out tons of cash for experiences. This “YOLO” attitude towards money bucks the spending trends of past economic downturns – and some economists have been left scratching their heads, especially as consumer sentiment on the economy remains overwhelmingly pessimistic.

“If 18 months ago, you’d have said the Federal Reserve Bank could raise interest rates by 500 basis points, and the consumer would chug on, relatively unfazed, I would have been extremely surprised,” says Ellie Henderson, an economist at UK-based, global bank Investec. “I’d have said, ‘that’s just not how economics works’.”

Typically, after a major crisis or job-market downshift, the economy generally experiences a small bump in both consumer savings and spending. However, the San Francisco Reserve Bank (SFRB) reported in May that the post-pandemic rise in fiscal spending this year has soared beyond the growth of any other post-1970s recessions.

Much of that growth, wrote SFRB experts, is due to an “unprecedented” increase of accumulated savings in US households, driven by the US Federal Government’s swift fiscal response to the pandemic. Stimulus packages that directly introduced $5tn (£3.9tn) into the US economy, combined with other indirect policies, including eviction moratoriums and the suspension of student loan payments, saved Americans about $2.3tn (£1.8tn) in 2020 and 2021.

Although this year, people have drawn down their savings, many consumers still have money in their reserves – some for the first time ever – and they’re willing to spend it now, even as they don’t have faith in a full economic rebound. This sustained period of “you-only-live-once”-esque spending amid rising debt and dwindling savings has confounded many economists.

Leading the charge on this YOLO spending, reports Boston Consulting Group, are the younger, upper-middle class segments of the US population. While these individuals are not necessarily affluent, they are earning enough money to meet their needs, and are still able to spend on pleasure trips and luxury goods. Many of them are also leaning into using buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platforms, which are experiencing major growth in the US, including during November’s Black Friday shopping spree.

“The strength of consumer spending, even after the dark days of the pandemic, has taken me by surprise,” says Wendy Edelberg, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institution, and director of The Hamilton Project.

Even if the pattern doesn’t follow economic precedent, however, some experts argue it makes sense intuitively.

“When you don’t really know what the future holds – or even if there’s a long enough future for you – people are focusing on the present and the short-term horizon,” says Chiraag Mittal, an assistant professor of marketing at the McIntire School of Commerce, University of Virginia. And, he says, amid shifting attitudes around work and life, “people are choosing to prioritise their happiness and fun”.

Malcolm Harris, author of Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and the World, argues intangible factors like these often get lost in the qualitative analyses that seek to explain macroeconomic trends. “Working life can change in qualitative ways that the metrics are bad at picking up,” he says.

If 18 months ago, you’d have said the Federal Reserve Bank could raise interest rates by 500 basis points, and the consumer would chug on, relatively unfazed, I would have been extremely surprised. I’d have said, ‘that’s just not how economics works’ – Ellie Henderson

Even though many people are still employed and earning pay cheques, he argues, they’re not necessarily happy – wages still are not keeping up with the pace of inflation, for instance, and people are still reeling from the physical and psychological trauma of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Although job satisfaction numbers seem strong, life happiness metrics are in the dumps,” says Harris. “Given how much of our life is related to work, how can analysts square that circle?”

However inexplicable the phenomenon feels, several economists agree these YOLO spending patterns can’t continue forever, and that the economic landscape is on the brink of change.

Henderson says there are major headwinds coming that could affect this, such as the October expiration of childcare grants, and the return of student loan payments. “How could that not hit consumption going forward?” she says.

Additionally, US credit card debt has surpassed $1tn (£788bn) for the first time, and economists predict it’s unlikely the cost of basic goods will drop soon, even as inflation slows. (Plus, those BNPL bills will come due, too.)

Henderson predicts it’s only a matter of time before some Americans are forced to tighten their belts and restrain their splurging. After such an exceptional fiscal year, however, Edelberg is less certain.

“I really don’t know when it will go down – it depends on which part of my brain you ask,” she says. If she were to hedge, she says the behaviour change would come by the end of the year. Yet, she says, “honestly, I would not be surprised if I were surprised”.

Source : BBC