Chart: China Exports Up but Imports Decline in November 2023

Source : Bloomberg

Chart: U.S. Pending Home Sales Index Down to a Record Low in October 2023

Source : Bloomberg

Charts: Total Return Performance of Major Global Fiancial Assets YTD

See large image . . . . . .

Source : Deutche Bank

Chart: U.S. Personal Saving Rate Back Down to Multi-decade Low in October 2023

Source : Bloomberg

Chuckles of the Day

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Moody’s Cuts Hong Kong, Macau and Bank Rating Outlooks Following China Move

Marc Jones wrote . . . . . . . . .

Moody’s put Hong Kong, Macau and swathes of China’s state-owned firms and banks on downgrade warnings on Wednesday as it wasted little time in following up on an identical move the previous day on the mainland government’s ratings.

Moody’s said the moves for Hong Kong and Macau reflected their tight political, institutional, economic and financial links with China under their “One Country, Two Systems” arrangements.

Hong Kong, which is rated one notch higher than China at Aa3 versus A1, hit out at the decision saying in a statement that its ties with Beijing were “a source of strength for long-term development.”

Moody’s added that, following imposition of a National Security Law in 2020 and changes to Hong Kong’s electoral system, it expected the erosion of the city’s autonomy “to continue incrementally”.

Mainland China’s weakening economy would affect Hong Kong’s finance-dominated one as well and that weaker growth could also erode the Hong Kong government’s fiscal buffers.

The ratings agency separately also lowered the outlooks of 26 local government financing vehicles and four state-owned enterprises and put all 30 of them on “review for downgrade”, which usually means a decision will be made within three months.

Eight Chinese banks had their outlooks cut to negative but they weren’t put on review for a downgrade.

Those included Agricultural Development Bank of China, China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, as well as five large state-owned commercial banks: Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China.

Source : Reuters

The Future of Food

Engineered food has taken the step out of laboratories and started entering the market. However, whether engineered food technologies present a real opportunity for systemic change will depend on research advances, socio-political and economic considerations and acceptance by consumers.

Imagine sitting down to a dinner of 3D-printed steak with a nutrient-optimized side dish of rice and ‘health-promoting’ tomatoes, while sipping on a glass of lab-produced milk — such a meal is no longer in the realm of pure imagination, at least from a technological perspective. The way we produce and consume food has constantly changed throughout human history, often aligned with changes in the way we live, our agricultural practices and climate alterations1,2. Today, more than three billion people around the world cannot afford a healthy diet and many of our food production processes have detrimental effects on the climate. Therefore, global food production, our consumption patterns and agricultural practices need to adapt to meet the food demand, democratize food distribution and ensure nutritional quality and ingredient safety while mitigating adverse environmental impact. Notwithstanding concerns about animal welfare.

“Increasingly mature technologies…can be applied to produce healthier, sustainable and more foods with fewer resources and lower carbon footprint, creating an opportunity to reformulate food consumption patterns towards sustainable diets”

Biotechnological and bioengineering tools are being developed to address some of these concerns by engineering plants, mammalian cells and microorganisms to produce food and food ingredients in a sustainable, environmentally friendly and animal-free way. Increasingly mature technologies, such as genome editing, cellular agriculture and microbial-based food production, can be applied to produce healthier, sustainable and more foods with fewer resources and lower carbon footprint, creating an opportunity to reformulate food consumption patterns towards sustainable diets. Moreover, animal-welfare-conscious substitutes for meat and dairy are being explored, and the first cultivated meat product (cell-cultured chicken) was approved in 2020 for commercial purposes by the Singapore Food Agency. In particular, animal-free products may have a substantial impact on reducing the environmental effects of food production given that animal-source foods are responsible for the majority of negative outcomes on land use, water use, biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions in global food systems.

However, engineered food is often met with scepticism owing to the uncertainty that inevitably comes with the use of new technologies. Therefore, societal dialogue will be important to build trust, change mindsets, develop transition pathways and safeguard against undesirable effects3. Moreover, the price of the final product is a key determinant of how engineered food markets will evolve, and thus, more research is required to streamline and optimize engineered food production. Importantly, robust analyses of the feasibility of technological innovations and their potential effects are needed3.

This focus issue discusses technological progress and opportunities of engineered food technologies, including genome-edited food, cultured (cell-based) meat, engineered microorganisms for food additive production and cellular agriculture for milk production. In addition, two start-up companies producing silk-based food packaging and cultured meat, respectively, discuss the challenges of bringing their products to the market. Furthermore, in a Viewpoint, two roboticists highlight the role robotics may play in transforming agricultural and cooking practices, and a Comment challenges the current scientific narrative of communicating new food and agricultural technologies to the public.

Defining the role that new biotechnologies may have in the future of food requires a broad conceptualization of food security, political economy and agricultural practice to ensure that technological advances translate into widely accessible and sustainable foods that are accepted by consumers4. Otherwise, 3D-printed meat and genome-engineered rice may well be produced — but would be neither affordable nor consumed. Whether engineered food becomes a game changer in the future of food will thus not only depend on technological advances, but also on how these are implemented and communicated in an economic and socio-political context.

Source: Nature

I Took a Test to Determine My ‘Biological Age’: ‘We Call It the Credit Score for the Body,’ Harvard Scientist Says

Renée Onque wrote . . . . . . . . .

There is increasing interest in the science of aging and how we can use that knowledge to reverse the clock. And start-ups like Tally Health are promising to provide that insight into how we age and, potentially, how to get ahead of it.

Tally Health created and administers a test that collects DNA samples from a cheek swab, and calculates what the company calls a “biological age.” The process involves identifying how your body ages on a cellular level based on epigenetics.

“We call it the credit score for the body that measures all aspects of your health,” Dr. David Sinclair, a Harvard scientist and longevity expert, tells CNBC Make It.

Sinclair co-founded Tally Health and, as its scientific advisor, had a hand in creating its test which partly relies on his years of research in the field of longevity.

“We have a new understanding of why we age, and how important it is to live a lifestyle that slows down that process. Because we’re aging every day,” he adds.

I was offered the opportunity to take the “TallyAge Test” and despite my generally healthy lifestyle, I was still a bit nervous to learn my biological age.

Here are my results, and how I was advised to interpret them.

My ‘biological age’ is just one month older than my actual age

Though the goal is to have a younger biological age than your actual age, only a drastically older biological age may cause room for concern, says Adiv Johnson, the director of research and innovation at Tally Health.

According to my results, my “TallyAge” is around 23 years and 7 months, just one month older than I was when I took the test in January.

And having the same biological age as your actual age is pretty great, says Johnson. But, “if I was 85, and I got told that it looks like a typical 95-year-old’s [DNA], there I might feel differently or respond differently,” he adds.

And as it turns out, my eating habits may be responsible for my positive results. I eat a mostly plant-based diet.

“What we found with our model is, on average, people that exercise tend to [test] younger than people that don’t exercise. People that eat lots of plant-based foods correlate with a younger TallyAge,” Johnson says.

The same correlation is seen for people who get enough good-quality sleep, are more socially fulfilled and drink less alcohol, he adds.

“There’s of course variability, because human beings are so complex,” Johnson says. Some people who smoke cigarettes often, have gotten younger biological ages, which he believes is likely due to their genetics.

‘More than 90% of how you age is up to lifestyle choices, environment’
While my biological age is pretty low, I was advised to strive for an even lower one to help reverse some of my aging.

“You can naturally lower your TallyAge by adopting the right lifestyle habits. More than 90% of how you age is up to your lifestyle choices and environment,” Tally Health advised in my results.

TallyAge test results come with a questionnaire about your behaviors like what you eat, how often you exercise and more. Using your responses, the company creates an action plan to improve your lifestyle, and hopefully reduce your biological age.

The company aims to help you track if, and how, your behaviors are affecting how you’re actually aging.

Users are encouraged to track their progress over time by taking a Tally test, and completing the lifestyle questionnaire, quarterly.

A Tally Health test will cost you $229, but the company also offers monthly and yearly subscriptions with prices that vary.

Source: CNBC

China’s Big Property Market Problem Will Take At Least 4 to 6 years to Resolve

Evelyn Cheng wrote . . . . . . . . .

China has a big problem within real estate that will take years to resolve, according to analysis from Oxford Economics lead economist Louise Loo.

Looking at nationwide data — whether based on official estimates of unsold inventory or the construction-to-sales ratio — Loo found it will take at least four to six years for real estate developers in China to complete unfinished residential properties.

That means efforts to boost funding to developers and other efforts to resolve China’s property market problems don’t directly address the bigger issue of uncompleted homes.

“However one slices the data, the existing excess supply in the market is likely to take at least another four years to unwind, absent a meaningful pickup in demand,” Loo said in a report Tuesday.

“Increasing supply coming from secondary market transactions – as households, worried about depleting profits from price declines, sell their second or third homes – is an additional drag to this process,” she said, noting that “developers’ inventory is far too large for households to absorb quickly.”
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Apartment homes are typically sold ahead of completion in China, making it critical that developers finish constructing the houses if they are to sell more.

But financing struggles and other issues have meant developers have had to delay home delivery times — discouraging future home sales.

On the extreme end, residential construction in the relatively poor province of Guizhou could take well over 20 years to complete, Loo said in an email, while it will likely take at least 10 years in several other provinces such as Jiangxi and Hebei.

Nomura last month estimated the size of unfinished, pre-sold homes in China is about 20 times the size of property developer Country Garden as of the end of 2022.

Real estate and related sectors have accounted for about a fifth to one-fourth of China’s economy.

Ratings agency Moody’s said late Tuesday it expects that share to decline, in-line with Chinese government objectives. However, the firm pointed out the resulting drop in land sales means local governments may face financial strain if they are unable to offset what’s been a driver of more than a third of revenue.

That means Beijing may need to step in, posing “downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,” Moody’s said. It downgraded its outlook on China’s government credit ratings to negative from stable.

Moody’s expects China’s growth domestic product to slow to 4% growth in 2024 and 2025 and average 3.8% a year from 2026 to 2030. The firm maintained an “A1” long-term rating on China’s sovereign bonds.

Spillover?

Despite persistent property market troubles, Oxford Economics’ Loo doesn’t expect significant spillover to the rest of the economy.

“We think China’s housing downturn will tread a different path than that of the US, Spain, or Ireland 10-15 years ago, and is unlikely to trigger a broader financial crisis,” she said.

In those situations, falling house prices, mortgage failures and bank lending were interlinked, Loo said, pointing out the difference in China: the greater role of policy, state-controlled banks and more stringent mortgage terms.

“We do see some similarities between China’s situation and the economic stagnation in Japan after the latter’s property bubble burst in 1991,” S&P Global Ratings said in a report Monday. “However, S&P Global Ratings believes China can avert this outcome, helped by regulatory action and the strength of its banking and corporate sectors.”

Source : CNBC