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Charts: Selected Economics Data of China in April, 2023

Source : National Bureau of Statistics

China’s Youth Jobless Rate Hits Record 20.4% in Danger Sign

China’s record high youth unemployment rate may climb further in the months to come, a warning sign that will pressure policymakers to take action.

The jobless rate for 16-to-24 year olds hit 20.4% last month, nearly four times the national rate, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday. Pressures will probably only grow this summer, when an estimated 11.58 million graduates are expected to flood the market.

The surge in joblessness underscores how much the economy is struggling to absorb new workers, even as growth rebounds from its pandemic slump and the overall labor force declines.

“The pressure from fresh college graduates will mount around July,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. Joblessness among the less educated was probably the main driver of unemployment among young people, he said.

Rising unemployment adds to the frustration and angst young people feel over their careers and socioeconomic status. Last summer, rare protests about Covid controls erupted at some universities, while many have also become disillusioned about their lack of opportunities after mass layoffs in once-popular industries like technology and edutech.

The country’s leaders appear keenly aware of the risks of rising joblessness. Last month, China’s Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Wang Xiaoping described stabilizing employment as a “major political responsibility,” the official Xinhua News Agency quoted her as saying.

Further government calls for addressing the problem came Tuesday, alongside other signs of a faltering recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. The NBS emphasized the need to create more jobs as it also revealed data showing industrial output, retail sales and fixed investment all growing at a much weaker pace than expected.

“More efforts need to be made to stabilize and expand employment for young people,” NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at a briefing in Beijing.

Authorities have taken some steps in recent weeks to try and stop youth unemployment from spiraling out of control. The government has asked state-owned enterprises to hire at least as many graduates this year as they did last year. The State Council, China’s cabinet, also last month published a detailed plan laying out measures to expand recruitment and provide subsidies to employers to incentivize them to make more hires.

Many companies, though, are remaining cautious about increasing capital expenditure or hiring more people, according to Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global Ratings. He pointed to “pressures on margins and lingering uncertainty about the strength and durability of the recovery” as key factors.

The rising youth jobless rate is also probably because of a “skills mismatch” in the labor market, according to Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Since China’s reopening appears to have benefited low-end services sector companies than others, there aren’t as many jobs for more educated applicants, he said.

A “sustained economic recovery is the best medicine for private sector sentiment,” Wrigley said. “The government could do more in terms of pushing forward market-based reforms to inject new vitality into the economy, which would allow the private sector to create more high-quality jobs in the longer term.”

Some economists aren’t as worried about the job market outlook.

China’s economic expansion should still be “strong enough” to bring down the overall jobless rate, which would feed through to lower youth unemployment, said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.

He warned that process would be “painfully slow,” though.

Beddor also pointed out that in general, youth employment tends to be concentrated in services — so the fact that the recovery has depended on strong services consumption should “eventually” help lower overall joblessness for that group.

Source : BNN Bloomberg

Mapped: The Most Expensive Neighbourhood in Every U.S. States

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Source : CashNetUSA

Global Prime Property Index Falls for the First Time in Q1 2023 since 2009

Global Prime Property Index Falls for the First Time in Q1 2023 since 2009

Lee Boyce wrote . . . . . . . . .

Luxury property prices have fallen globally for the first time since 2009, comprehensive data from Knight Frank shows.

The Prime Global Cities Index from the estate agent, which tracks prices in 46 areas around the world, fell 0.4 per cent in the 12 months to the end of March 2023.

Between 2010 and 2020, the growth of this index was running at around 5 per cent. Since then, the rises have been closer to double digit, with it peaking at 10.1 per cent in the last three months of 2021.

But a slowdown in growth has ‘overwhelmingly’ been driven by higher interest rates following tightening of global monetary policy, Knight Frank says.

Annual prices are now falling more than a third of cities tracked. And while two thirds are still growing in value, the large size of price falls in some areas has pulled the index negative.

Only eight cities posted plus 5 per cent growth for prime property. Meanwhile, the New Zealand prime market has witnessed a huge slump.

Wellington saw prices plummet 27 per cent in the last 12 months, Auckland 17 per cent and Christchurch 15.3 per cent – the three worst performing cities in the world.

Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, told This is Money: ‘New Zealand’s prime markets saw very strong growth during the pandemic.

‘This growth was driven by pandemic lifestyle purchases but also by sharply lower interest rates, which fell from 1.75 per cent pre-pandemic to 0.25 per cent during 2020 and 2021.

‘Since then, the sharp rise in the New Zealand bank rate – from 0.25 per cent to 5.25 per cent – has pulled pricing sharply lower.’

Toronto saw prime values drop 13.4 per cent, Frankfurt 11.1 per cent and Stockholm 11 per cent.

This, Knight Frank says, ‘reflects weakness in their broader national markets,’ in these spots.

London was placed 29th in the list, with growth of 0.5 per cent in the last year. Edinburgh is 7th with prime values up 5.1 per cent.

Mr Bailey adds: ‘London and Edinburgh’s prime markets have both seen price growth slow as the UK base rate has risen in recent months – with falling prices over the past quarter and six months.

‘However, in both markets available stock to buy is still around 20 per cent below the level seen pre-pandemic and strong buyer volumes this is limiting price falls.’

The biggest winner of the last 12 months has been Dubai, with values surging 44.2 per cent in just a year in the United Arab Emirates city.

Indeed, prices in Dubai have rocketed since the pandemic and are up 149 per cent since March 2020. Knight Frank says it ‘reflects a market undergoing significant structural change.’

Mr Bailey explains: ‘Dubai was the big winner from the pandemic – evolving from a regional hub market to a global market – with demand for property increasing sharply from Europe, the wider Middle East, India, Asia and more recently the US.

‘With luxury supply failing to keep pace with demand, pricing has risen sharply.’

Source : This Is Money