Chart: China Stock Back Where They Were Before the Boom

Source : Bloomberg

Chart: Fertility Rate Dropped Substantially in South Korea and Asian Countries

Source : UN

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Read more at AP

South Korea in demographic crisis as many stop having babies . . . . .

Chart: Institute of International Finance Forecast Global Recession in 2023

See large image . . . . . .

Source : Twitter

Humour: News in Cartoon

The World Cup’s New High-Tech Ball Will Change Soccer Forever

Ben Dowsett wrote . . . . . . . . .

When the 2022 World Cup made its debut on Sunday, it kicked off one of the most significant in-game uses of technology in sports history.

All tournament long, match balls will contain a sensor that collects spatial positioning data in real time — the first World Cup to employ such a ball-tracking mechanism. This, combined with existing optical tracking tools, will make VAR (video assistant referees) and programs like offside reviews more accurate and streamlined than they’ve ever been. Combining these two forms of tracking has long been a holy grail of sorts in technology circles, and FIFA’s use of the ball sensor in particular will serve as a highly public test case over the next four weeks.

Like so many other parts of the burgeoning world of sports tech, the setup used at the World Cup is both an endpoint and the foundation of a whole new era. Years of research and testing were needed to get here — this particular ball sensor was in development and testing for six years before receiving full FIFA certification — but events like this could quickly catapult emerging technology into the public eye through applications that stretch well beyond officiating.

What went into the development of today’s tracking technology, and what are its key uses at this World Cup? How has the tech been tested, and how can players, teams and fans alike be confident that it’s accurate and consistent? And maybe most importantly, what does this same technology portend for the future of analysis, fan engagement and team data across the world’s most popular sport?

I spoke to people across the world of sports tech to find answers around one of the field’s boldest experiments to date.

Which technology is being used, and how does it work?

FIFA’s application of this technology at the 2022 World Cup is being termed a “semi-automated offside” program – one that’s largely run by AI features, but retains a vital element of human confirmation.

Within every match ball is a device designed by KINEXON, a major player in the performance-tracking world across several sports. Per the company, this device weighs 14 grams (just under 0.5 ounces), and actually houses two separate sensors operating simultaneously:

• Ultra-wideband (UWB) sensor: A type of technology that’s superior to GPS or Bluetooth for precise positional data, plus can transmit data in real time to constantly track the ball’s position.
• Inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensor: A sensor meant to detect nuanced movements of an object in space.

“While the ultra-wideband helps me to have the position of an object, the IMU gives me the granular movement in three dimensions,” said Maximillian Schmidt, co-founder and managing director of KINEXON.

So any time the ball is kicked, headed, thrown or even so much as tapped, the system picks it up at 500 frames per second. Data is sent in real time from sensors to a local positioning system (LPS), which involves a setup of network antennas installed around the playing field that take in and store the data for immediate use. When a ball flies out of bounds during the course of play, and a new ball is thrown or kicked in to replace it, KINEXON’s backend system automatically switches to the new ball’s data input without the need for human intervention.

KINEXON’s in-ball device is supported by suspension technology provided by Adidas, designed to house the sensor at the central interior point of the ball and keep it secure in a consistent location.

Paired with this ball sensor is optical camera tracking from Hawk-Eye, a system well known for its work in tennis. Twelve Hawk-Eye cameras are set up around the stadium, tracking both the ball itself and each player 50 times per second. Twenty-nine separate points of the body are tracked for players, including limbs.

When combined, these two data sources allow for offside decisions that are not just highly accurate, but also available much faster than in the past – a major priority for FIFA in this World Cup cycle.

“We debriefed in 2018 after the World Cup,” Nicolas Evans, head of football research and standards for FIFA Technology Innovation, said. Such a debrief is standard after each World Cup, according to Evans. “The biggest area for improvement we saw was the time it took to make offside decisions.”

With that in mind, data from both KINEXON and Hawk-Eye is run through artificial intelligence software that’s programmed to generate automated offside alerts to officials in the match’s video room. Instead of manually combing through plays, a time-consuming process, AI programs auto-generate alerts that can then be confirmed by video match officials.

The software also generates 3D renderings of the spatial data, which will be overlaid onto TV broadcasts and in-stadium monitors to give fans a direct look at how each reviewed call was decided.

How accurate is this data? How is it tested?

Some readers might have an understandable question at this point: “How do I know this data consistently reflects the true positioning of the players and ball?”

The first concept to understand here is refresh rate, which is measured in Hz and refers to the number of times per second that a given display is able to draw a new image. Standard 50Hz video, a common format used for HD monitors today, is generating a new image 50 times per second (or a “frame rate” of 50 frames per second, for those more familiar with that term). Anyone who has slowed a video down to frame-by-frame mode knows the sensation of slight periods of time passing between each frame – and for 50Hz video, that gap is 20 milliseconds per frame (for 60Hz video, it’s 16.66 milliseconds per frame, and so on).

With KINEXON’s ball-tracking system, that data is coming in at 500Hz, meaning any gaps in true positioning are below two milliseconds long – or 10 times shorter than standard 50Hz lags. Furthermore, the use of a PTP master clock allows synchronization between KINEXON and Hawk-Eye data that’s precise down to one-millionth of a second, per Evans, ensuring the two feeds are never out of whack with one another.

To check each component of the system, FIFA has conducted tests in both controlled and live settings.

For both the KINEXON ball sensors and Hawk-Eye’s optical camera setup, a format known as “ground truth testing” is required by FIFA’s Quality Programme for Electronic Performance Testing Systems (EPTS). The approach utilizes a minimum of 36 high-quality Vicon motion-capture cameras, combined with reflective markers designed for these cameras placed on the ball itself and every player for ultra-accurate detection. As players and the ball move around the testing pitch, both these Vicon cameras and the KINEXON/Hawk-Eye setups run simultaneously – and researchers compare the two outputs to assess the accuracy of the latter systems. This testing is augmented by the use of other tools, such as a laser to detect events like high-speed player sprints.

Another kind of test is also vital here, especially for one of the world’s most-watched sporting events: Ensuring that the addition of a sensor inside the ball is imperceptible to the players kicking it. Since it’s all too easy to envision a scenario in which a prominent player blames the feel of the “different” World Cup ball for a missed penalty or some other on-pitch failure — igniting a worldwide controversy — eliminating such concerns is naturally important.

Adidas is the key entity responsible for this kind of testing, which sources familiar with the program report is done in two ways:

• Blind player testing: With the help of clubs in places like Spain, Germany and England, extensive blind testing was carried out to see if players could tell the difference between “normal” balls and balls infused with the sensor/suspension setup without knowing which was which ahead of time.
• Mechanical shooter testing: In a lab setting, robotic shooting devices can be programmed to “kick” the ball at varying speeds, spins and directions. High-speed cameras then evaluate the flight of the ball, ensuring that the presence of the sensor does not create abnormal flight paths.

This testing was performed in several professional and grassroots settings, such as the 2021 FIFA Arab Cup in Qatar and the 2021 FIFA Club World Cup in Abu Dhabi. In addition, Evans said FIFA ran several of its own additional blind tests, including at a team workshop in Qatar earlier in 2022.

“Together with our partner Adidas, large-scale sample blind tests have been carried out where no differences could be observed by players between the connected ball and the regular ball,” Evans said.

These and similar forms of tech also have been getting real-life test runs for years now. An earlier version of KINEXON’s sensor-infused ball was used alongside jersey tracking in 2018 in Germany’s fourth-tier Regionalliga to bring real-time data to a live TV broadcast; a newer setup was used earlier this year during a German academy club match. The Hawk-Eye camera setup, meanwhile, has been utilized in the UEFA Champions League group-stage matches throughout the early part of this season in the lead-up to the World Cup.

Of course, none of this guarantees an incident-free event. Unforeseen circumstances can come up in the world of tech. Equipment can malfunction. Even in the likely scenario that the tech works perfectly from start to finish, good luck convincing crazed sports fans of that if their country’s top player has trashed the tracked ball or suggested the system isn’t accurate.

Such possibilities are all but unavoidable in the end. But the companies involved are confident they’ve met every important threshold to introduce this new level of technology into the world’s most important soccer competition.

“[It’s] probably as good as it’s ever been in this type of technology,” Evans said.

This is the tip of the technological iceberg

The 2022 World Cup is barely scratching the surface of the potential capabilities of this sort of technology – which go well beyond officiating.

Before long, this combination of ball- and optical-tracking could be a familiar tool to everyone involved with the sport — much like Second Spectrum tracking in the NBA or Hawk-Eye in tennis. Teams and players could use the resulting data for next-generation tactical analysis; broadcasts could use it to visualize the game and draw in new viewers. Fans could eventually have access to a vast ocean of new stats that were never possible until now.
In fact, this already has started happening.

Earlier in 2022, KINEXON’s ball sensor was used in a Liga Portugal relegation match, along with sensors in player jerseys to track their movements. More than 300 different metrics were collected in multiple categories, including technical data (shot and pass speed, ball possession time, distinct ball actions), performance data (dribbling speed, accelerations and sprints — both with and without the ball — plus measures of athlete “load”) and tactical data (for both teams and players, tactical concepts such as space control, pressing, ball gains/losses and counters can be tracked).

Possible applications of this data, especially once it’s a more standardized part of the game and the parties involved become familiar with using it, are virtually limitless.

“We can use that information in real time to tell new stories,” Schmidt said. “[We can use] them to create virtual worlds, augmented overlays, insights on performance of players.”

For one thing, expect soccer fans to have new ways of enjoying the game based on this advanced tech. The first layer here will be broadcast improvements: More 3D immersive graphics, similar to the offside renderings 2022 World Cup viewers will see, could be used in several new ways – even those that viewers control. We’ll also see overlaid on-screen data, much like the LA Clippers’ “CourtVision” broadcast option that displays tracking information and a digitized view of the court during play.

And the next wave after that is even more exciting to think about. The world of virtual reality offers tantalizing potential; imagine watching plays (or even an entire game) from the direct vantage point of Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema or any other player of your choosing. Evans and others in the space also expect this data to eventually make its way into the world of video games, merging real and digital realms.

That’s just on the fan side. As the 2022 World Cup tracking setup becomes more commonplace around soccer, players and teams will now have a wealth of new data, particularly surrounding the ball – the true heartbeat of the sport. Tactics, analytics and even all-important health and performance improvements are all on the table.

Said Schmidt: “More and more leagues are now thinking about, ‘How can we enhance the already existing dataset with new insights from the ball?’ Because it’s the head of the game.”

So as tech continues to change the way we view sports, the 2022 World Cup stands poised to serve as a watershed moment. When you see that first “semi-automated” offside call, remember what it took to get to this point – and daydream about what the near future holds.

Source : FiveThirtyEight

Infographic: The Average Home Size in Every U.S. State in 2022

Lot Size vs. Home Size

Interestingly, while average home sizes in the U.S. have gotten larger over time, the average lot size has shrunk over the years.

In 1978, the average lot size for a U.S. property was 18,760 square feet, but by 2020, this figure had dropped to a record low of 13,896 square feet.

With lot sizes shrinking, will there come a point where home size growth across the country starts to plateau, or even shrink?

Source : Visual Capitalist

Pressure on the Hong Kong Dollar Peg Keeps Building

Richard Cookson wrote . . . . . . . . .

I wrote in April that the financial and social prices of protecting the Hong Kong greenback pegged to the US greenback had been turning into unsustainable and may need to be deserted. The pressures I’ve described have solely elevated and at the moment are most likely larger than anybody outdoors of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority – which challenged my authentic evaluation – realizes.

The HKMA is remitted to maintain FX buying and selling inside a variety of HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 per US greenback. The present band was discontinued in 2005 and has by no means been damaged. If it will get too near both finish of the band, the HKMA intervenes by both shopping for or promoting the metropolis’s forex. As the chart beneath reveals, the forex traded at the extraordinarily weak finish of the vary for many of the 12 months, below stress from the strengthening US greenback. This stress has eased considerably not too long ago as rate of interest expectations have eased considerably. But that is solely prone to be a short-term repair, as the social and financial prices of defending the bond are monumental. The peg to the Hong Kong greenback is sort of a gold customary and, like the gold customary, the weaknesses of such mechanisms are all the time social and financial.

Because of its peg to the US greenback, Hong Kong has no impartial financial coverage; it needed to observe the Federal Reserve and tighten at a time when it needs to be doing the reverse. If the Chinese financial system as a complete has been struggling on the again of its extraordinary “zero Covid” coverage and the mom of all debt bubble hangovers, Hong Kong has fared even worse, contracting 4.5% 12 months on 12 months in the third quarter. The benchmark Hang Seng index is down almost half since its 2018 excessive, even after a latest rebound.

With development headed in the improper path and the HKMA compelled to hike rates of interest, Hong Kong has needed to resort to the solely choice for currency-pegged international locations: large authorities spending. However, there may be very restricted room for any nation to extend fiscal spending with out traders worrying about the accompanying improve in borrowing (debt) and the sustainability of the peg. No surprise, then, that fiscal coverage has achieved little to mitigate the sharp downturn.

This is not only a cyclical drawback both. Hong Kong’s finest days are behind him. China’s political interference has solely elevated. The labor pressure, particularly the increased earners in finance, is shrinking. I doubt the weak point is solely cyclical, and if not, Hong Kong’s tax base has been completely eroded. That’s an issue as a result of Hong Kong is now a massively leveraged financial system.

That the authorities has little or no debt is not actually the level, as personal sector debt greater than makes up for it. Andrew Hunt, an impartial economist who has adopted Asia carefully for many years, factors out that the exterior debt is almost $500,000 for each particular person working in Hong Kong. According to the World Bank, home debt has doubled since 2007. Housing debt has been rising notably quick, and regardless of a worth slide exhibiting all indicators of accelerating, Hong Kong property remains to be amongst the costliest in the world.

It is that this large rise in debt, falling asset costs and the more and more gloomy outlook for Hong Kong’s financial system that makes defending the peg a lot extra problematic than it was throughout the Asian disaster of the late Nineties. The ramifications of all this may be seen in the HKMA’s Exchange Fund, which, amongst different issues, manages Hong Kong’s international change reserves. His wealth has fallen to $417 billion from $500 billion at the finish of final 12 months, the largest drop ever, in accordance with the HKMA.

Most of the decline in Exchange Fund property over the previous few months, nonetheless, shouldn’t be as a consequence of intervention, however quite to 2 different sources. The first is that the authorities needed to faucet into the Exchange Fund to make up for misplaced income, in accordance with HKMA and authorities information. Barring a slight surplus in 2020-2021, the authorities has reported a consolidated finances deficit since 2019. To cut back these deficits – and create this very small surplus – the authorities tapped into the collected finances surplus managed by the Exchange Fund. From a peak of HK$1.17 trillion ($150 billion) in 2018-2019, the finances surplus shrank to HK$957 billion by the finish of March and HK$704 billion by the finish of September. Over a four-year interval starting in 2019-2020, the authorities additionally put aside HK$82.4 billion as a housing reserve, in accordance with authorities and HKMA information. Although saved individually, this was additionally cash from earlier finances surpluses.

These transfers are counted as present income in authorities accounts, though they’re the product of earlier years’ income. The authorities says it is because it makes use of money accounting. That’s why the proceeds from the $10 billion inexperienced bonds it has issued are counted as earnings. It has not handled different money owed this manner, nor would every other accounting system on the planet. Over the previous 12 months, the authorities doubled the quantity of inexperienced bond debt it may have excellent at any given time.

In addition, potential authorities liabilities are rising. Since 2019, the quantity of mortgage ensures supplied by the authorities, principally for smaller companies, has elevated from HK$27.8 billion to HK$133.4 billion, annual studies present. These solely enter the authorities’s steadiness sheet when corporations default, and the present default charge is simply 2.6%, in accordance with the authorities. But it’s also possible to preserve failing corporations afloat in case you lend them sufficient cash at rock-bottom rates of interest.

To me, the fascinating method the authorities should generate income reeks of desperation. And if spending is minimize, the financial system will virtually definitely fare even worse, making a vicious circle of even slower development, extra defaults and fewer income. The authorities says these are one-off issues brought on by the pandemic and different remoted circumstances. The drawback is that finances deficits predated Covid. And given the seemingly profile of the Chinese financial system usually and Hong Kong particularly, I do not see that altering.

The second motive why the Exchange Fund’s property have gone down is funding losses. Although most look to complete property when contemplating the firepower at the HKMA’s disposal, that is not solely correct. The peg is not backed by the full $417 billion, however by the backing fund, which is about half that quantity and simply 10% greater than the HKMA’s financial base calculations (the identical proportion increased than a 12 months in the past). The totals are smaller, nonetheless, as the cash provide has contracted by about 9%. Although this provides a sign of the deflationary forces gripping Hong Kong, the cash provide would have contracted extra had the HKMA not tapped into the Exchange Fund.

In numerous annual studies and statements, the HKMA says it may use the remainder of the portfolio to defend the peg if mandatory. There is a mechanism whereby this occurs robotically when the property of the companion fund shrink to simply 5% above the financial base. On the different hand, if the worth of the companion fund is no less than 12.5% ​​increased than the financial base, cash shall be transferred to its funding portfolios. What the HKMA will not inform me is whether or not there may be any discretion on this course of.

There are three different portfolios: the Strategic Fund, which incorporates solely its pursuits in Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing; the mutual fund, which incorporates public debt and shares; and the Long-Term Growth Fund, which invests in actual property and personal fairness.

How a lot is all this cash price now? HKMA doesn’t rely the beneficial properties and losses of its strategic fund in complete returns. As good as. But the assist fund comprises nothing however {dollars} and possibly short-dated authorities bonds or comparable substitutes (however because it had mark-to-market losses we will not be certain). The different two portfolios maintain most of the HKMA’s threat. Based on some cheap assumptions, round 1 / 4 of the Funds’ exposures are prone to be in non-US greenback denominated property.

This can also be the place, in accordance with the HKMA, sits the overwhelming majority of HKMA’s fairness and credit score threat, of which there are loads. Total fairness publicity, detailed in the annual report late final 12 months, was HK$745 billion. But there may be virtually definitely extra. Exposure to personal fairness and actual property joint ventures is lumped in with actual property in one other class of unlisted and pretty nebulous HK$443 billion ‘mutual funds’. The HKMA makes it very tough to determine what’s the place.

The fund comprises all publicly traded bonds and shares. It’s cheap to imagine, though I do not know for certain and the HKMA will not say that each one inventory is marked to market month-to-month. Its long-term strategic development fund is one other matter. At the finish of final 12 months, this fund had property price round HK$515 billion. Valuations of its unlisted investments are printed semi-annually, however the newest efficiency numbers are primarily based on valuations as of late March.

Apparently, the HKMA is excellent at actual property and personal fairness investing, having made a small revenue not like virtually everybody else. These outcomes needs to be taken with warning. As anybody concerned in such valuations will know, they are usually expressions of hope, fashions, and heroic assumptions quite than something approaching a worth at which such property may very well be offered. And it is gotten lots worse since then anyway.

Call me old style, however a authorities that clearly wants money and a bunch of property which might be prone to proceed to fall in worth makes it fairly seemingly that the Exchange Fund’s property might want to proceed shrinking — and that the causes for doing so will add much more stress the cone.

Source : Bloomberg

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Read also at BNN Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley Says HK Dollar Peg Will Stay, Rebutting Ackman . . . . .

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Read more at Reuters

Billionaire investor Ackman bets Hong Kong dollar peg can break . . . . .

Chart: The Rise and Fall of Nuclear Energy?

Source : Statista