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Charts: OECD Economic Outlook

Charts: OECD Economic Outlook


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Source : OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2021

Charts: China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Exceeded the Developed World for the First Time in 2019

Source : Rhodium Group

China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Exceeded the OECD Countries Combined for the First Time in 2019

Kate Larsen, Hannah Pitt, Mikhail Grant, and Trevor Houser wrote . . . . . . . . .

Each year Rhodium Group provides the most up-to-date global and country-level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates through the ClimateDeck (a partnership with Breakthrough Energy). In addition to our preliminary US and China GHG estimates for 2020, Rhodium provides annual estimates of economy-wide emissions—including all six Kyoto gases—for over 190 countries from 1990-2019. Using our newly updated global emissions data through 2019, we estimate that in 2019, for the first time since national greenhouse gas emissions have been measured, China’s annual emissions exceeded those of all developed countries combined. China’s emissions were less than a quarter of developed country emissions in 1990, but over the past three decades have more than tripled, reaching over 14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent in 2019.

Based on our newly updated preliminary estimates for 2019, global emissions—including emissions of all six Kyoto gases, inclusive of land-use and forests and international bunkers—reached 52 gigatons of CO2-equivalent in 2019, a 11.4% increase over the past decade. China alone contributed over 27% of total global emissions, far exceeding the US—the second highest emitter—which contributed 11% of the global total. For the first time, India edged out the EU-27 for third place, coming in at 6.6% of global emissions.

In 2019, China’s GHG emissions passed the 14 gigaton threshold for the first time, reaching 14,093 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMt CO2e). This represents a more than tripling of 1990 levels, and a 25% increase over the past decade. As a result, China’s share of the 2019 global emissions total of 52 gigatons rose to 27%.

In 2019, China’s emissions not only eclipsed that of the US—the world’s second-largest emitter at 11% of the global total—but also, for the first time, surpassed the emissions of all developed countries combined. When added together, GHG emissions from all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as well as all 27 EU member states, reached 14,057 MMt CO2e in 2019, about 36 MMt CO2e short of China’s total.

But China is a large country, home to over 1.4 billion people. To date, China’s size has meant that its per capita emissions have remained considerably lower than those in the developed world. In 2019, China’s per capita emissions reached 10.1 tons, nearly tripling over the past two decades. This comes in just below average levels across the OECD bloc (10.5 tons/capita) in 2019, but still significantly lower than the US, which has the highest per capita emissions in the world at 17.6 tons/capita. While final global data for 2020 is not yet available, we expect China’s per capita emissions exceeded the OECD average in 2020, as China’s net GHG emissions grew around 1.7% while emissions from almost all other nations declined sharply in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While China exceeded all developed countries combined in terms of annual emissions and came very close to matching per capita emissions in 2019, China’s history as a major emitter is relatively short compared to developed countries, many of which had more than a century head start. A large share of the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere each year hangs around for hundreds of years. As a result, current global warming is the result of emissions from both the recent and more distant past. Since 1750, members of the OECD bloc have emitted four times more CO2 on a cumulative basis than China. This overstates the relative role of OECD emissions in the more than 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures that has occurred since before the industrial revolution because a large share of annual CO2 emissions is absorbed in the earth’s carbon cycle in the decades after release. But China still has a way to go before surpassing the OECD on a cumulative contribution basis.


Source : Rhodium Group

Corporate Tax Receipt As a Share of GDP in OECD Countries


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Source : OECD

Infographic: Average Weekly Hours Worked and Wages by OECD Countries

Ratio of Residents Living Below the Extreme Poverty Line in China 2000-2019

Living on less than 2,300 yuan per year

The medium per capita income in 2019 was 26,523 yuan while the average per capita income was 30,733 yuan.

Source : Statista


Poverty rates in OECD countries as of 2019

The poverty rate is the ratio of the number of people whose income falls below the poverty line and the total population.

The poverty line is here taken as half the median household income. Income is defined as household disposable income in a particular year.


Source : Statista

Ratio of Minimum Wage to Medium Full-time Wages in OECD Countries

Source : Goldman Sachs

OECD: Continued Fiscal Support and Public Health Action Needed to Make Hope of Recovery a Reality

The prospect of a number of COVID-19 vaccines becoming widely available next year has lifted hopes for a faster recovery, but policymakers will need to retain both public health and fiscal support while acting decisively for the momentum to pick up, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.

The OECD warned in its June Economic Outlook that a second wave of infections at the end of the year could knock an initial rebound off course. Europe and North America are now bearing the brunt of a resurgence of the virus, stalling the recovery. Global GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 is expected to be 3% below the same quarter last year, while for the Euro area and the US the decline is projected to be 7.3% and 3.2%, respectively.

Activity will continue to be restricted with social distancing and partly-closed borders most likely remaining through the first half of 2021, the Economic Outlook says. The global economy is expected to gain momentum only gradually, as vaccines are deployed throughout OECD countries in the course of 2021. After falling sharply by 4.2% this year, world GDP is projected to rise by 4.2% in 2021, with China expected to account for over a third of that growth.

The recovery will be uneven across countries and sectors and could lead to lasting changes in the world economy. Countries with effective testing, tracking and isolation programmes and where effective vaccinations can be distributed rapidly should perform relatively well, but a high degree of uncertainty persists.

The Outlook provides both upside and downside risks to its main projections. The release of pent-up demand and accumulated savings may reinforce a rebound if vaccines become available faster and more widely, boosting global growth to around 5% in 2021. But confidence may be hit if problems arise with the distribution or unexpected secondary effects of the vaccines and if the lessons from the first two waves of the pandemic are not learnt. In this scenario, global growth in 2021 would be lowered by 2¾ percentage points.

Presenting the Economic Outlook with OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone today, Secretary-General Angel Gurría said: “There is hope, but that hope needs to be turned into reality. The pandemic is a global problem. International co-operation is needed now more than ever.”

“Building back better requires leadership and action to build on the promises of vaccines, and to relaunch multilateral negotiations on trade, climate and digital standards to pave the way for a more sustainable growth and a society where opportunities are available for all.”

Laurence Boone said: “With the prospect of vaccines and better virus management, the picture for the global economy is looking brighter, but the situation remains precarious, especially for the low-skilled and for struggling small businesses.”

“Governments have been vindicated in the support they provided to shield people and firms. With rock-bottom interest rates expected to persist, governments can and need to sustain it to prevent long-term scarring effects of this crisis. The economic consequences will be with us for years to come. Governments must address decisively the effects on the most vulnerable, especially children and the young.” (See Summary handout for Economic Outlook news conference.)

The Outlook shows how the crisis has worsened inequality, hitting the most vulnerable in society the hardest. High levels of unemployment, particularly among the low-skilled and young, risk persisting for years. Many children, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, have fallen badly behind in their education during lockdowns, further limiting their opportunities in the future.

For millions of small and medium-sized businesses – the main drivers of job creation – mounting debts and continued uncertainty are putting their survival in jeopardy. The Outlook says declines in firms’ profits will hit their ability to service debts in the future and undermine their capacity to invest. Young and small as well as less productive companies are expected to be badly affected, in addition to those in the accommodation and food, transport, and arts and entertainment sectors that are severely affected by the lockdown measures.

The economic damage would have been even worse without the massive government financial support now in place to help people and companies weather the shock. With very low interest rates expected to continue for some time, exceptional spending can and should continue until the recovery gains momentum, the OECD says. Policy action should become better targeted to where it is needed most and to strengthen the recovery.

The balance of spending should gradually move towards more investment in health, education and infrastructure, encouraging a shift to a greener and more digitalised economy, it adds.

The Economic Outlook calls for determined action from policymakers across a number of fronts:

  • Strengthen public health services by investing in health workers, prevention strategies and capacity. Implement effective test, trace and isolate programmes. Start planning vaccination campaigns now. Co-ordinate internationally to ensure affordable vaccines and treatments are available wherever needed.
  • Support the vulnerable by expanding social safety nets and improving training for youth and the low-skilled. Ensure that children from disadvantage backgrounds are equipped for the digital age to give them equal opportunities.
  • Support businesses by providing grants and equity rather than loans adding to existing debt. Assist companies to invest in their future by, for instance, facilitating the adoption of digital technology.

The Economic Outlook warns that corporate debt is reaching levels last seen in the global financial crisis a decade ago, raising the risk of insolvencies but also cutting firms’ capacity to invest, which would weaken a broader economic recovery.


Source : OECD

Global Economies Suffer Largest Drop on Record

The OECD said its leading indicators, which are designed to flag turning points in economic activity, suggested all major economies had plunged into a “sharp slowdown” with only India registering as being in a mere “slowdown”.

The indicators were flagging “the largest drop on record in most major economies”, the Paris-based OECD said in statement, adding that huge uncertainty over how long lockdowns would last severely muted their predictive value.

Source : OECD

Household Debt in OECD Countries

Debt as % of Gross Disposable Income