Gordon G. Chang wrote . . . . . . . . .
All the conditions for history’s next great war are in place. Jim Holmes, the Wiley Professor at the Naval War College, actually talks about this period as being 1937.
1937 was the year in which if you were in Europe or America, you could sense the trouble. If you were in Asia in 1937, you would be even more worried, because that year saw Japan’s second invasion of China that decade.
No matter where you lived, however, you could not be sure that the worst would happen, that great armies and navies around the world would clash. There was still hope that the situation could be managed. As we now know, the worst did happen. In fact, what happened was worse than what anyone thought at the time.
We are now, thanks to China, back to 1937.
We will begin our discussion in Afghanistan. Beijing has had long‑standing relations with the Afghan Taliban, going back before 9/11, and continuing through that event.
After the US drove the Taliban from power and while it was conducting an insurgency, China was selling the group arms, including anti‑aircraft missiles, that were used to kill American and NATO forces.
China’s support for killing Americans has continued to today. In December 2020, Indian Intelligence was instrumental, in Afghanistan, in breaking up a ring of Chinese spies and members of the Haqqani Network. The Trump administration believed that the Chinese portion of that ring was actually paying cash for killing Americans.
What can happen next? We should not be surprised if China gives the Taliban an atomic weapon to be used against an American city. Would they be that vicious?
We have to remember that China purposefully, over the course of decades, proliferated its nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and then helped Pakistan sell that Chinese technology around the world to regimes such as Iran’s and North Korea’s.
Today, China supports the Taliban. We know this because China has kept open its embassy in Kabul. China is also running interference for the Taliban in the United Nations Security Council. It is urging countries to support that insurgent group with aid. It looks as if the Taliban’s main financial backers these days are the Chinese.
Beijing is hoping to cash in on its relationship in Central Asia. Unfortunately, there is a man named Biden, who is helping them.
In early August, Biden issued an executive order setting a goal that by 2030, half of all American vehicles should be electric‑powered. To be electric‑powered, we need rare earth minerals, we need lithium. As many people have said, Afghanistan is the Saudi Arabia of rare earths and lithium.
If Beijing can mine this, it makes the United States even more dependent on China. It certainly helps the Taliban immeasurably.
Unfortunately, Beijing has more than just Afghanistan in mind. The Chinese want to take away our sovereignty, and that of other nations, and rule the world. They actually even want to rule the near parts of the solar system. Yes, that does sound far‑fetched, but, no, I’m not exaggerating. Chinese President Xi Jinping would like to end the current international system.
On July 1, in a landmark speech, in connection with the centennial of China’s ruling organization, he said this: “The Communist Party of China and the Chinese people, with their bravery and tenacity, solemnly proclaim to the world that the Chinese people are not only good at taking down the old world, but also good in building a new one.”
By that, China’s leader means ending the international system, the Westphalian international system. It means he wants to impose China’s imperial‑era notions of governance, where Chinese emperors believed they not only had the Mandate of Heaven over tianxia, or all under Heaven, but that Heaven actually compelled the Chinese to rule the entire world.
Xi Jinping has been using tianxia themes for decades, and so have his subordinates, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who in September 2017 wrote an article in Study Times, the Central Party School’s influential newspaper.
In that article, Wang Yi wrote that Xi Jinping’s thought on diplomacy ‑‑ a “thought” in Communist Party lingo is an important body of ideological work ‑‑ Wang Yi wrote that Xi Jinping’s thought on diplomacy made innovations on and transcended the traditional theories of Western international relations of the past 300 years.
Take 2017, subtract 300 years, and you almost get to 1648, which means that Wang Yi, with his time reference, was pointing to the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648, which established the current system of sovereign states.
When Wang Yi writes that Xi Jinping wants to transcend that system, he is really telling us that China’s leader does not want sovereign states, or at least no more of them than China. This means that when Biden says, “Oh, the Chinese just want to compete with us,” he is wrong. They do not want to “compete” within the international system. They do not even want to change that system so it is more to their liking. They want to overthrow it altogether, period.
China is also revolutionary with regard to the solar system. Since about 2018, Chinese officials have been talking about the moon and Mars as sovereign Chinese territory. In other words, as part of the People’s Republic of China. This means that China considers those heavenly bodies to be like the South China Sea: theirs and theirs alone.
This also means that China will exclude other nations from going to the moon and Mars if they have the capability to do so. We do not have to speculate about that: Chinese officials say this is what they are going to do.
Let us return to April 2021. Beijing announced the name of its Mars rover. “We are naming the Mars rover Zhurong,” the Chinese said, “because Zhurong was the god of fire in Chinese mythology, ” How nice. Yes, Zhurong is the god of fire. What Beijing did not tell us is that Zhurong is also the god of war—and the god of the South China Sea.
Is Xi Jinping really that bold or that desperate to start another war? Two points. First, China considers the United States to be its enemy. The second point is that the United States is no longer deterring China. China feels it has a big green light to do whatever it wants.
On the first point, about our enemy status, we have to go back to May 2019. People’s Daily, the most authoritative publication in China, actually carried a piece that declared a “people’s war” on the US. This was not just some isolated thought.
On August 29th 2021, People’s Daily came out with a landmark piece that accused the United States of committing “barbaric” acts against China. Again, this was during a month of hostile propaganda blasts from China.
On the August 29th, Global Times, which is controlled by People’s Daily, came right out and also said that the United States was an enemy or like an enemy.
We Americans don’t pay attention to propaganda. The question is, should we be concerned about what China is saying? After all, these are just words.
At this particular time, these words are significant. The strident anti‑Americanism suggests to me that China is laying the justification for a strike on the United States. We keep ignoring what Beijing is saying. We kept ignoring what Osama bin Laden was saying.
We have to remember that the Chinese regime, unlike the Japanese, always warn its adversaries about what it is going to do. Jim Lilley, our great ambassador to Beijing during the Tiananmen Massacre, actually said that China always telegraphs its punches. At this moment, China is telegraphing a punch.
That hostility, unfortunately, is not something we can do very much about. The Chinese Communist regime inherently idealizes struggle, and it demands that others show subservience to it.
The second reason war is coming is that America’s deterrence of China is breaking down. That is evident from what the Chinese are saying.
In March of 2021, China sent its top two diplomats, Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, to Anchorage to meet our top officials, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Yang, in chilling words, said the US could no longer talk to China “from a position of strength.”
We saw the same theme during the fall of Kabul. China then was saying, “Look, those Americans, they can’t deal with the insurgent Taliban. How can they hope to counter us magnificent Chinese?” Global Times actually came out with a piece referring to Americans: “They can’t win wars anymore.”
We also saw propaganda at that same time directed at Taiwan. Global Times was saying, again, in an editorial, an important signal of official Chinese thinking, “When we decide to invade, Taiwan will fall within hours and the US will not come to help.”
It is probably no coincidence that this propaganda came at the time of incursions into Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone.
We need to be concerned with more than just the intensity and with the frequency of these flights, however. We have to be concerned that China was sending H‑6K bombers; they are nuclear‑capable.
Something is wrong. Global Times recently came out with an editorial with the title, “Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real.”
Beijing is at this moment saying things heard before history’s great conflicts. The Chinese regime right now seems to be feeling incredibly arrogant. We heard this on November 28th in 2020, when Di Dongsheng, an academic in Beijing, gave a lecture live-streamed to China.
Di showed the arrogance of the Chinese elite. More importantly, he was showing that the Chinese elite no longer wanted to hide how they felt. Di, for instance, openly stated that China could determine outcomes at the highest levels of the American political system.
Di’s message was that with cash, China can do anything it wants, and that all Americans would take cash. He mentioned two words in this regard: Hunter Biden.
Unfortunately, President Joe Biden is reinforcing this notion. China, for instance, has so far killed nearly one million Americans with a disease that it deliberately spread beyond its borders. Yet, what happened? Nothing.
We know that China was able to spread this disease with its close relationship with the World Health Organization. President Trump, in July of 2020, took us out of the WHO. What did Biden do? In his first hours in office, on January 20th, 2021, he put us back into the WHO.
In February, he had a two‑hour phone call with Xi Jinping. By Biden’s own admission, he didn’t raise the issue of the origins of COVID‑19 even once. If you are Xi Jinping, after you put down the receiver, your first thought is, “I just got away with killing hundreds of thousands of Americans.”
Then there’s somebody named John Kerry. Our republic is not safe when John Kerry carries a diplomatic passport, as he now does. He is willing to make almost any deal to get China to sign an enhanced climate arrangement.
Kerry gave a revealing interview to David Westin of Bloomberg on September 22, 2021. Westin asked him, “What is the process by which one trades off climate against human rights?” Climate against human rights?
Kerry came back and said, “Well, life is always full of tough choices in the relationship between nations.” Tough choices? We Americans need to ask, “What is Kerry willing to give up to get his climate deal?”
Democracies tend to deal with each other in the way that Kerry says. If we are nice to a democracy, that will lead to warm relations; warm relations will lead to deals, long‑standing ties. Kerry thinks that the Chinese communists think that way. Unfortunately, they do not.
We know this because Kerry’s successor as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in February 2009, said in public, “I’m not going to press the Chinese on human rights because I’ve got bigger fish to fry.” She then went to Beijing a day after saying that and got no cooperation from the Chinese.
Even worse, just weeks after that, China felt so bold that it attacked an unarmed US Navy reconnaissance vessel in the South China Sea. The attack was so serious that it constituted an act of war. The Chinese simply do not think the way that Kerry believes they do.
All of this, when you put it together, means that the risk of war is much higher than we tend to think. Conflict with today’s aggressor is going to be more destructive than it was in the 1930s. We have news that China is building something like 345 missile silos in three locations: in Gansu, Xinjiang, and in Inner Mongolia.
These silos are clearly built to accommodate the DF‑41. The DF‑41 has a range of about 9,300 miles, which means that it can reach any part of the United States. The DF‑41 carries 10 warheads. This means that China could, in about two years, as some experts think, have a bigger arsenal than ours.
China has built decoy silos before. We are not sure they are going to put all 345 missiles into these facilities, but we have to assume the worst because Chinese leaders and Chinese generals, on occasion, unprovoked, have made threats to nuke American cities.
This, of course, calls into question their official no‑first‑use policy, and also a lot of other things. China will not talk to us about arms control. We have to be concerned that China and Russia, which already are coordinating their military activities, would gang up against us with their arsenals.
In July, 2021 China tested a hypersonic glide warhead, which circled the world. This signals China intends to violate the Outer Space Treaty, to which China is a party. It also shows that in hypersonic technology, which was developed by Americans, China is now at least a decade ahead of us in fielding a weapon.
Why is China doing all this now? The country is coming apart at the seams. There is, for instance, a debt crisis. Evergrande and other property developers have started to default. It is more than just a crisis of companies. China is basically now having its 2008.
Even more important than that, they have an economy that is stumbling and a food crisis that is worsening year to year. They know their environment is exhausted. Of course, they also are suffering from a continuing COVID‑19 epidemic.
To make matters worse, all of this is occurring while China is on the edge of the steepest demographic decline in history in the absence of war or disease.
Two Chinese demographers recently stated that China’s population will probably halve in 45 years. If you run out those projections, it means that by the end of the century, China will be about a third of its current size, basically about the same number of people as the United States.
These developments are roiling the political system. Xi Jinping is being blamed for these debacles. We know he has a low threshold of risk. Xi now has all the incentive in the world to deflect popular and regime discontent by lashing out.
In 1966, Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic, was sidelined in Beijing. What did he do? He started the Cultural Revolution. He tried to use the Chinese people against his political enemies. That created a decade of chaos.
Xi Jinping is trying to do the same thing with his “common prosperity” program. The difference is that Mao did not have the means to plunge the world into war. Xi, with his shiny new military, clearly does have that ability.
So here is a 1930s scenario to consider. The next time China starts a conflict, whether accidentally or on purpose, we could see that China’s friends — Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan — either in coordination with China or just taking advantage of the situation, move against their enemies.
That would be Ukraine in the case of Russia, South Korea in the case of North Korea, Israel in the case of Iran, India in the case of Pakistan, and Morocco in the case of Algeria. We could see crises at both ends of the European landmass and in Africa at the same time.
This is how world wars start.
Source : Gatestone Institute